Betting Lines
| Spread | UMBC -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Under |
| Money | NJIT +180 UMBC -163 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NJIT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NJIT +4 | 134 | Won |
| Massey | UMBC -3.0 (+7.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 135.0 (-1.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 21% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 17% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UMBC -2.5 (+6.5) | 134.7 (-0.7) | 36% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UMBC -2.0 (+6.0) | 135.1 (-1.1) | 50% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UMBC -2.0 (+6.0) | 137.9 (-3.9) | 46% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UMBC -2.4 (+6.4) | 135.4 (-1.4) | 42% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 3, 2026 | UMBC 91 – 52 NJIT |
| Jan 22, 2026 | UMBC 87 – 74 NJIT |
| Feb 22, 2025 | UMBC 95 – 91 NJIT |
| Jan 10, 2025 | UMBC 87 – 64 NJIT |
| Mar 1, 2024 | UMBC 79 – 60 NJIT |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NJIT | UMBC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 7-12 | 14-6 |
| Conference | 6-10 | 10-4 |
| Home | 3-5 | 5-4 |
| Away | 4-6 | 9-2 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L4 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.1 | 69.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.2 | 64.9 |
| Massey | -3.6 (#222) | 2.1 (#132) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.16 (#262) | 0.61 (#129) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.47 (#257) | 0.61 (#132) |
| RPI | 0.431 (#276) | 0.512 (#150) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NJIT | UMBC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.0% | 43.9% |
| 3PT% | 33.3% | 31.1% |
| REB / G | 32.5 | 36.9 |
| OREB / G | 9.0 | 8.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.86 | 0.86 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.7% | 49.6% |
| TOV% | 16.3% | 19.0% |
| ORB% | 24.3% | 25.3% |
| FT Rate | 24.8% | 26.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.3% | 45.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.9% | 19.2% |
| DRB% | 68.8% | 74.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.1% | 17.1% |
Game Analysis
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