Betting Lines
| Spread | HOF -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Over |
| Money | UNCW +130 HOF -120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNCW win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HOF +6 | 172 | Lost |
| Massey | UNCW -0.4 (-6.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.5 (+23.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 30% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 37% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNCW -0.8 (-6.8) | 144.9 (+27.1) | 53% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNCW -0.5 (-6.5) | 142.9 (+29.1) | 47% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNCW -0.6 (-6.6) | 146.1 (+25.9) | 50% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UNCW -0.2 (-6.2) | 145.0 (+27.0) | 50% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 14, 2026 | UNCW 70 – 66 HOF |
| Jan 11, 2025 | HOF 66 – 63 UNCW |
| Mar 1, 2024 | HOF 69 – 58 UNCW |
| Mar 6, 2023 | UNCW 79 – 73 HOF |
| Jan 20, 2023 | HOF 70 – 46 UNCW |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNCW | HOF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 7-10 | 13-10 |
| Conference | 1-6 | 8-6 |
| Home | 3-4 | 7-3 |
| Away | 3-4 | 5-6 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L5 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.8 | 73.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.2 | 73.0 |
| Massey | -2.0 (#199) | 0.2 (#160) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.65 (#219) | 0.64 (#128) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.70 (#215) | 0.37 (#149) |
| RPI | 0.450 (#243) | 0.552 (#87) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNCW | HOF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.4% | 43.9% |
| 3PT% | 32.9% | 31.1% |
| REB / G | 31.5 | 35.8 |
| OREB / G | 9.5 | 10.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.92 | 1.01 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.5% | 49.8% |
| TOV% | 16.1% | 18.2% |
| ORB% | 26.9% | 28.8% |
| FT Rate | 30.3% | 24.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.1% | 49.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.2% | 17.5% |
| DRB% | 68.2% | 71.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.2% | 16.9% |
Game Analysis
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