Betting Lines
| Spread | EVAN -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 126.5 Under |
| Money | EVAN +100 VAL +110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | EVAN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | EVAN +18 | 122 | Won |
| Massey | VAL -0.5 (+18.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 130.9 (-8.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 59% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 56% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | EVAN -0.2 (+17.8) | 132.9 (-10.9) | 52% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | EVAN -0.2 (+17.8) | 131.7 (-9.7) | 52% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | EVAN -0.2 (+17.8) | 133.9 (-11.9) | 50% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | EVAN -0.1 (+17.9) | 134.8 (-12.8) | 49% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | EVAN 80 – 79 VAL |
| Feb 7, 2026 | VAL 70 – 63 EVAN |
| Feb 17, 2025 | EVAN 79 – 69 VAL |
| Jan 25, 2025 | EVAN 78 – 68 VAL |
| Feb 3, 2024 | EVAN 63 – 62 VAL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | EVAN | VAL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-16 | 10-18 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 7-11 |
| Home | 8-4 | 6-6 |
| Away | 1-10 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.8 | 63.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.6 | 68.7 |
| Massey | -7.0 (#279) | -3.9 (#225) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.95 (#250) | -0.85 (#240) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.31 (#249) | -1.01 (#231) |
| RPI | 0.442 (#256) | 0.447 (#247) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | EVAN | VAL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.8% | 39.5% |
| 3PT% | 37.6% | 27.6% |
| REB / G | 28.7 | 34.1 |
| OREB / G | 6.4 | 8.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.14 | 1.01 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.9% | 45.3% |
| TOV% | 17.0% | 17.8% |
| ORB% | 18.9% | 22.6% |
| FT Rate | 20.9% | 22.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.7% | 50.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.6% | 18.4% |
| DRB% | 74.5% | 72.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.7% | 24.4% |
Game Analysis
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