Betting Lines
| Spread | CSUB -9.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Over |
| Money | CSUB -450 CSUF +400 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CSUB win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CSUB +10 | 156 | Won |
| Massey | CSUB -8.2 (+1.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.3 (+17.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 82% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CSUB -7.1 (+2.9) | 138.0 (+18.0) | 78% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CSUB -8.0 (+2.0) | 135.8 (+20.2) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CSUB -7.1 (+2.9) | 138.9 (+17.1) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CSUB -6.9 (+3.1) | 138.3 (+17.7) | 76% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 22, 2026 | CSUF 88 – 80 CSUB |
| Feb 8, 2026 | CSUF 82 – 66 CSUB |
| Feb 15, 2025 | CSUB 91 – 54 CSUF |
| Jan 24, 2025 | CSUB 71 – 68 CSUF |
| Feb 10, 2024 | CSUB 73 – 71 CSUF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CSUB | CSUF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-11 | 6-10 |
| Conference | 9-7 | 5-7 |
| Home | 9-2 | 5-4 |
| Away | 6-8 | 1-5 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.9 | 75.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.7 | 79.1 |
| Massey | 1.3 (#145) | -4.3 (#233) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.36 (#145) | -0.72 (#228) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.76 (#130) | -0.54 (#203) |
| RPI | 0.514 (#144) | 0.427 (#282) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CSUB | CSUF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.6% | 45.8% |
| 3PT% | 32.2% | 38.1% |
| REB / G | 38.2 | 31.8 |
| OREB / G | 13.9 | 7.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.89 | 1.00 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.7% | 52.3% |
| TOV% | 19.6% | 17.9% |
| ORB% | 39.3% | 22.2% |
| FT Rate | 24.1% | 27.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.3% | 53.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.9% | 18.9% |
| DRB% | 74.4% | 71.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 32.8% | 20.8% |
Game Analysis
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