Betting Lines
| Spread | TOW -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Over |
| Money | TOW -175 W&M +180 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TOW win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | W&M +1 | 149 | Lost |
| Massey | TOW -0.9 (-1.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.3 (+5.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 45% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 49% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TOW -0.8 (-1.8) | 142.0 (+7.0) | 54% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TOW -1.2 (-2.2) | 139.1 (+9.9) | 50% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TOW -0.5 (-1.5) | 139.7 (+9.3) | 50% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TOW -0.4 (-1.4) | 141.2 (+7.8) | 51% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 29, 2025 | W&M 84 – 70 TOW |
| Feb 28, 2025 | TOW 88 – 73 W&M |
| Mar 9, 2024 | TOW 67 – 56 W&M |
| Feb 16, 2024 | TOW 61 – 52 W&M |
| Feb 14, 2023 | W&M 68 – 66 TOW |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TOW | W&M |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 4-14 | 7-10 |
| Conference | 3-9 | 4-6 |
| Home | 4-4 | 1-3 |
| Away | 0-6 | 5-6 |
| Neutral | 0-4 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.4 | 64.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.9 | 72.0 |
| Massey | -7.1 (#280) | -5.3 (#252) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.19 (#266) | -0.51 (#205) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.68 (#271) | -1.09 (#233) |
| RPI | 0.422 (#288) | 0.487 (#186) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TOW | W&M |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.3% | 41.6% |
| 3PT% | 28.2% | 30.7% |
| REB / G | 38.4 | 33.6 |
| OREB / G | 13.1 | 10.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.68 | 0.85 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.4% | 47.2% |
| TOV% | 19.9% | 20.3% |
| ORB% | 35.9% | 29.4% |
| FT Rate | 24.6% | 24.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.2% | 51.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.7% | 17.0% |
| DRB% | 69.2% | 68.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.4% | 19.9% |
Game Analysis
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