Betting Lines
| Spread | FRES -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 127.5 Under |
| Money | FRES -275 UNM +275 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FRES win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FRES +10 | 120 | Won |
| Massey | FRES -7.9 (+2.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 122.1 (-2.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 81% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FRES -5.4 (+4.6) | 129.3 (-9.3) | 71% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FRES -5.9 (+4.1) | 127.0 (-7.0) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FRES -6.0 (+4.0) | 128.8 (-8.8) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | FRES -6.4 (+3.6) | 128.6 (-8.6) | 72% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 22, 2026 | UNM 80 – 78 FRES |
| Jan 22, 2026 | UNM 83 – 74 FRES |
| Jan 20, 2025 | UNM 95 – 67 FRES |
| Jan 1, 2025 | UNM 103 – 89 FRES |
| Mar 7, 2024 | UNM 79 – 58 FRES |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FRES | UNM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-12 | 6-16 |
| Conference | 9-11 | 2-15 |
| Home | 7-5 | 1-4 |
| Away | 4-6 | 3-8 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 1-4 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.8 | 62.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.5 | 72.8 |
| Massey | -5.7 (#259) | -10.9 (#321) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.18 (#185) | -1.20 (#267) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.14 (#180) | -1.40 (#254) |
| RPI | 0.476 (#203) | 0.418 (#292) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FRES | UNM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.0% | 37.9% |
| 3PT% | 29.6% | 24.3% |
| REB / G | 37.0 | 35.8 |
| OREB / G | 12.0 | 12.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.67 | 0.74 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.0% | 41.4% |
| TOV% | 21.8% | 21.1% |
| ORB% | 31.8% | 32.0% |
| FT Rate | 21.6% | 19.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.8% | 52.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.2% | 19.1% |
| DRB% | 75.3% | 69.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.3% | 22.3% |
Game Analysis
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