Betting Lines
| Spread | INST -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 134.5 Under |
| Money | INST +100 BRAD +100 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | INST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | INST +3 | 117 | Won |
| Massey | INST -1.9 (+1.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 130.9 (-13.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 79% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | INST -2.9 (+0.1) | 132.1 (-15.1) | 67% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | INST -1.6 (+1.4) | 130.5 (-13.5) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | INST -3.1 (-0.1) | 131.4 (-14.4) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | INST -3.2 (-0.2) | 132.9 (-15.9) | 66% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 22, 2026 | BRAD 75 – 68 INST |
| Dec 19, 2025 | BRAD 108 – 99 INST |
| Jan 16, 2025 | BRAD 118 – 65 INST |
| Jan 2, 2025 | BRAD 90 – 89 INST |
| Jan 27, 2024 | INST 95 – 86 BRAD |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | INST | BRAD |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-10 | 12-16 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 6-12 |
| Home | 9-3 | 8-6 |
| Away | 5-6 | 2-9 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.9 | 67.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.8 | 68.1 |
| Massey | 2.4 (#127) | 3.2 (#120) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.77 (#116) | -0.09 (#177) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.94 (#122) | -0.41 (#199) |
| RPI | 0.546 (#98) | 0.508 (#154) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | INST | BRAD |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.9% | 44.3% |
| 3PT% | 34.7% | 31.5% |
| REB / G | 31.6 | 38.8 |
| OREB / G | 8.0 | 10.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.72 | 1.01 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.8% | 49.6% |
| TOV% | 20.5% | 19.8% |
| ORB% | 25.1% | 30.5% |
| FT Rate | 31.3% | 16.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.7% | 47.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.9% | 18.3% |
| DRB% | 72.0% | 73.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.4% | 21.6% |
Game Analysis
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