Betting Lines
| Spread | SFPA -7.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Over |
| Money | SFPA -275 CCSU +275 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SFPA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CCSU +8 | 162 | Lost |
| Massey | SFPA -8.3 (-16.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.1 (+12.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 75% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 86% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SFPA -7.1 (-15.1) | 145.4 (+16.6) | 78% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SFPA -5.4 (-13.4) | 147.2 (+14.8) | 70% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SFPA -7.0 (-15.0) | 148.8 (+13.2) | 76% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | SFPA -6.6 (-14.6) | 145.2 (+16.8) | 75% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | CCSU 69 – 64 SFPA |
| Jan 17, 2026 | CCSU 98 – 90 SFPA |
| Mar 11, 2025 | SFPA 46 – 43 CCSU |
| Feb 15, 2025 | CCSU 83 – 67 SFPA |
| Jan 4, 2025 | CCSU 74 – 59 SFPA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SFPA | CCSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 6-16 | 5-16 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 5-13 |
| Home | 4-6 | 3-6 |
| Away | 2-10 | 2-9 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L3 | W1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.9 | 68.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.4 | 77.4 |
| Massey | -3.2 (#215) | -8.9 (#299) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.33 (#196) | -0.94 (#249) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.02 (#173) | -1.28 (#247) |
| RPI | 0.499 (#171) | 0.453 (#240) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SFPA | CCSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.1% | 43.0% |
| 3PT% | 31.9% | 33.0% |
| REB / G | 36.2 | 31.2 |
| OREB / G | 10.6 | 8.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.96 | 0.92 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.2% | 49.0% |
| TOV% | 19.6% | 19.1% |
| ORB% | 28.6% | 22.0% |
| FT Rate | 21.5% | 17.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.6% | 54.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.8% | 19.7% |
| DRB% | 68.5% | 67.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.6% | 21.9% |
Game Analysis
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