Betting Lines
| Spread | MSM -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 127.5 Over |
| Money | MSM -200 SHU +220 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MSM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MSM +12 | 140 | Won |
| Massey | MSM -5.8 (+6.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 125.1 (+14.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 53% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MSM -4.0 (+8.0) | 129.1 (+10.9) | 63% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MSM -3.9 (+8.1) | 128.3 (+11.7) | 64% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MSM -3.8 (+8.2) | 127.9 (+12.1) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MSM -4.1 (+7.9) | 128.4 (+11.6) | 63% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | SHU 77 – 69 MSM |
| Dec 4, 2025 | SHU 87 – 80 MSM |
| Jan 12, 2025 | MSM 73 – 71 SHU |
| Feb 25, 2022 | SHU 77 – 65 MSM |
| Jan 22, 2022 | MSM 98 – 59 SHU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MSM | SHU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-11 | 9-9 |
| Conference | 9-7 | 9-7 |
| Home | 6-3 | 4-3 |
| Away | 6-6 | 5-6 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 63.2 | 70.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 62.2 | 75.0 |
| Massey | -1.6 (#191) | -4.7 (#241) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.01 (#170) | 0.32 (#151) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.23 (#157) | 0.16 (#162) |
| RPI | 0.514 (#148) | 0.491 (#182) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MSM | SHU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.4% | 39.4% |
| 3PT% | 32.8% | 30.5% |
| REB / G | 35.9 | 39.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.6 | 11.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.81 | 0.93 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.6% | 45.8% |
| TOV% | 21.7% | 19.3% |
| ORB% | 31.2% | 29.9% |
| FT Rate | 17.7% | 24.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.9% | 48.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.8% | 15.5% |
| DRB% | 75.6% | 69.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.0% | 17.6% |
Game Analysis
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