Betting Lines
| Spread | PITT -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Under |
| Money | PITT -163 ND +170 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PITT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ND +26 | 142 | Lost |
| Massey | PITT -6.1 (-32.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.8 (-2.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 76% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 77% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PITT -6.0 (-32.0) | 143.7 (-1.7) | 73% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PITT -4.8 (-30.8) | 142.6 (-0.6) | 70% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PITT -5.5 (-31.5) | 143.4 (-1.4) | 71% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | PITT -6.2 (-32.2) | 143.3 (-1.3) | 73% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | PITT 73 – 68 ND |
| Mar 11, 2025 | ND 55 – 54 PITT |
| Feb 22, 2025 | ND 76 – 72 PITT |
| Feb 3, 2024 | PITT 70 – 60 ND |
| Mar 2, 2023 | ND 88 – 81 PITT |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PITT | ND |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-12 | 11-15 |
| Conference | 6-10 | 7-11 |
| Home | 7-6 | 6-5 |
| Away | 3-5 | 4-8 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.2 | 72.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.1 | 74.3 |
| Massey | 8.5 (#65) | 5.0 (#102) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.40 (#77) | 0.70 (#121) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.92 (#76) | 1.25 (#101) |
| RPI | 0.526 (#122) | 0.501 (#168) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PITT | ND |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.4% | 44.7% |
| 3PT% | 32.2% | 37.2% |
| REB / G | 41.2 | 32.4 |
| OREB / G | 13.3 | 6.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.22 | 1.31 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.8% | 52.8% |
| TOV% | 18.7% | 16.4% |
| ORB% | 35.1% | 19.7% |
| FT Rate | 25.4% | 22.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.5% | 51.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.1% | 12.8% |
| DRB% | 72.0% | 72.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.2% | 13.7% |
Game Analysis
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