Betting Lines
| Spread | OAK -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 154.5 Over |
| Money | PFW +110 OAK -110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PFW win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | OAK +7 | 157 | Lost |
| Massey | PFW -2.7 (-9.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 162.0 (-5.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 51% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 46% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PFW -0.7 (-7.7) | 158.1 (-1.1) | 56% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PFW -0.7 (-7.7) | 155.8 (+1.2) | 38% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PFW -0.9 (-7.9) | 156.2 (+0.8) | 42% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PFW -1.2 (-8.2) | 157.3 (-0.3) | 55% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 29, 2026 | OAK 74 – 65 PFW |
| Dec 4, 2025 | OAK 101 – 92 PFW |
| Feb 22, 2025 | PFW 80 – 66 OAK |
| Jan 23, 2025 | OAK 76 – 72 PFW |
| Mar 8, 2024 | OAK 75 – 65 PFW |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PFW | OAK |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 8-15 | 12-18 |
| Conference | 6-14 | 10-10 |
| Home | 5-6 | 5-4 |
| Away | 3-9 | 6-11 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.1 | 74.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.7 | 81.2 |
| Massey | -6.8 (#273) | -6.9 (#277) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.22 (#269) | -0.78 (#235) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.66 (#270) | -0.95 (#227) |
| RPI | 0.427 (#281) | 0.517 (#140) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PFW | OAK |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 50.2% | 40.2% |
| 3PT% | 41.4% | 33.0% |
| REB / G | 32.2 | 34.0 |
| OREB / G | 8.3 | 11.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.75 | 1.11 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 57.9% | 47.4% |
| TOV% | 25.6% | 18.0% |
| ORB% | 28.6% | 28.2% |
| FT Rate | 24.9% | 21.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.4% | 56.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.2% | 19.4% |
| DRB% | 69.9% | 65.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.4% | 15.9% |
Game Analysis
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