Betting Lines
| Spread | LUC -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Under |
| Money | MOST +220 LUC -200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MOST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LUC +26 | 118 | Lost |
| Massey | LUC -4.4 (-21.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.5 (-22.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 55% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 50% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LUC -2.5 (-23.5) | 135.2 (-17.2) | 35% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LUC -2.1 (-23.9) | 138.1 (-20.1) | 40% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | LUC -2.7 (-23.3) | 138.0 (-20.0) | 36% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LUC -3.6 (-22.4) | 138.3 (-20.3) | 34% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 6, 2022 | LUC 71 – 62 MOST |
| Jan 22, 2022 | MOST 79 – 69 LUC |
| Feb 2, 2021 | LUC 70 – 50 MOST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MOST | LUC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-7 | 26-5 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 16-2 |
| Home | 9-4 | 13-0 |
| Away | 7-2 | 8-3 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 5-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.5 | 70.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.3 | 56.4 |
| Massey | 7.1 (#82) | 14.2 (#22) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.38 (#79) | 1.63 (#64) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.62 (#87) | 2.16 (#69) |
| RPI | 0.544 (#100) | 0.563 (#73) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MOST | LUC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.8% | 49.9% |
| 3PT% | 33.5% | 35.7% |
| REB / G | 37.9 | 32.6 |
| OREB / G | 7.4 | 7.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.04 | 1.42 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.1% | 57.0% |
| TOV% | 18.3% | 17.9% |
| ORB% | 23.0% | 25.2% |
| FT Rate | 30.5% | 22.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.3% | 46.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.1% | 22.5% |
| DRB% | 76.1% | 78.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.0% | 18.3% |
Game Analysis
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