Betting Lines
| Spread | LUC -8.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Under |
| Money | MOST +350 LUC -350 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MOST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LUC +20 | 120 | Lost |
| Massey | LUC -8.0 (-12.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.6 (-17.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 42% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 31% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LUC -6.1 (-13.9) | 133.5 (-13.5) | 26% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LUC -5.2 (-14.8) | 135.4 (-15.4) | 30% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | LUC -6.9 (-13.1) | 135.7 (-15.7) | 24% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LUC -7.0 (-13.0) | 136.0 (-16.0) | 24% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 6, 2022 | LUC 71 – 62 MOST |
| Jan 22, 2022 | MOST 79 – 69 LUC |
| Jan 31, 2021 | LUC 72 – 46 MOST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MOST | LUC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-7 | 26-5 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 16-2 |
| Home | 9-4 | 13-0 |
| Away | 7-2 | 8-3 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 5-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.5 | 70.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.3 | 56.4 |
| Massey | 5.1 (#98) | 15.7 (#13) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.09 (#92) | 1.91 (#50) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.22 (#99) | 2.56 (#48) |
| RPI | 0.542 (#99) | 0.577 (#56) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MOST | LUC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.8% | 50.1% |
| 3PT% | 32.6% | 35.0% |
| REB / G | 37.5 | 33.0 |
| OREB / G | 7.7 | 7.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.99 | 1.41 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.9% | 56.9% |
| TOV% | 18.4% | 17.6% |
| ORB% | 23.1% | 24.6% |
| FT Rate | 28.9% | 22.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.0% | 45.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.1% | 22.3% |
| DRB% | 76.6% | 77.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.4% | 18.0% |
Game Analysis
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