Betting Lines
| Spread | NDSU -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 121.5 Under |
| Money | KC +220 NDSU -200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | KC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | KC +2 | 96 | Won |
| Massey | KC -0.2 (+1.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 120.0 (-24.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 22% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 25% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NDSU -1.1 (+3.1) | 129.2 (-33.2) | 41% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NDSU -0.8 (+2.8) | 120.0 (-24.0) | 49% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NDSU -1.1 (+3.1) | 127.1 (-31.1) | 46% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | NDSU -1.2 (+3.2) | 127.2 (-31.2) | 44% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | NDSU 95 – 59 KC |
| Jan 9, 2026 | NDSU 97 – 73 KC |
| Feb 7, 2025 | NDSU 78 – 72 KC |
| Jan 17, 2025 | NDSU 71 – 64 KC |
| Feb 9, 2024 | NDSU 82 – 78 KC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | KC | NDSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-13 | 15-12 |
| Conference | 7-7 | 11-5 |
| Home | 8-3 | 6-2 |
| Away | 2-8 | 5-7 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 4-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 62.4 | 69.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 64.6 | 67.7 |
| Massey | -2.3 (#203) | 0.2 (#161) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.18 (#318) | -0.46 (#202) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.30 (#301) | -0.68 (#214) |
| RPI | 0.431 (#278) | 0.487 (#185) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | KC | NDSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.2% | 44.3% |
| 3PT% | 35.9% | 34.4% |
| REB / G | 28.8 | 36.9 |
| OREB / G | 7.0 | 8.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.81 | 0.76 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.1% | 50.4% |
| TOV% | 20.9% | 19.4% |
| ORB% | 22.9% | 27.3% |
| FT Rate | 17.9% | 26.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.4% | 48.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.8% | 13.9% |
| DRB% | 75.9% | 80.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 42.1% | 16.5% |
Game Analysis
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