Betting Lines
| Spread | TXSO -13.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Over |
| Money | TXSO -1200 ALST +900 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TXSO win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TXSO +7 | 153 | Won |
| Massey | TXSO -16.3 (-9.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 127.1 (+25.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TXSO -11.5 (-4.5) | 134.1 (+18.9) | 86% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TXSO -12.0 (-5.0) | 130.6 (+22.4) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TXSO -10.8 (-3.8) | 133.9 (+19.1) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TXSO -11.6 (-4.6) | 133.8 (+19.2) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 27, 2026 | TXSO 96 – 64 ALST |
| Mar 13, 2025 | ALST 84 – 79 TXSO |
| Jan 28, 2025 | TXSO 80 – 69 ALST |
| Jan 30, 2024 | TXSO 56 – 55 ALST |
| Jan 24, 2023 | TXSO 71 – 65 ALST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TXSO | ALST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-9 | 4-14 |
| Conference | 10-3 | 4-14 |
| Home | 8-2 | 3-6 |
| Away | 5-6 | 1-8 |
| Neutral | 4-1 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L6 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.7 | 64.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.8 | 71.6 |
| Massey | -4.7 (#240) | -18.3 (#344) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.84 (#239) | -2.76 (#331) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.98 (#287) | -4.58 (#338) |
| RPI | 0.489 (#183) | 0.329 (#346) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TXSO | ALST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.1% | 36.1% |
| 3PT% | 28.2% | 28.3% |
| REB / G | 36.8 | 39.3 |
| OREB / G | 11.3 | 13.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.68 | 0.55 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.4% | 40.8% |
| TOV% | 21.4% | 23.2% |
| ORB% | 30.9% | 33.5% |
| FT Rate | 23.4% | 28.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.2% | 47.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.4% | 21.6% |
| DRB% | 71.8% | 73.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.7% | 25.3% |
Game Analysis
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