Betting Lines
| Spread | BEL -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Under |
| Money | MUR +140 BEL -138 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MUR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BEL +1 | 143 | Lost |
| Massey | BEL -6.0 (+5.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.6 (-6.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 6% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 5% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BEL -4.7 (+3.7) | 148.9 (-5.9) | 29% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BEL -3.7 (+2.7) | 145.7 (-2.7) | 32% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BEL -4.1 (+3.1) | 148.6 (-5.6) | 29% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BEL -4.5 (+3.5) | 151.2 (-8.2) | 24% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 15, 2026 | BEL 87 – 70 MUR |
| Feb 1, 2026 | BEL 103 – 86 MUR |
| Mar 2, 2025 | BEL 70 – 60 MUR |
| Jan 25, 2025 | BEL 95 – 77 MUR |
| Feb 29, 2024 | BEL 83 – 61 MUR |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MUR | BEL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-13 | 26-4 |
| Conference | 10-10 | 18-2 |
| Home | 9-4 | 11-1 |
| Away | 4-8 | 10-2 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 5-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.8 | 81.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.5 | 69.1 |
| Massey | -2.6 (#206) | 6.0 (#91) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.61 (#293) | 1.66 (#62) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.02 (#291) | 1.42 (#94) |
| RPI | 0.409 (#302) | 0.539 (#106) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MUR | BEL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.1% | 50.8% |
| 3PT% | 33.0% | 35.7% |
| REB / G | 34.6 | 34.6 |
| OREB / G | 9.3 | 7.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.04 | 1.44 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.7% | 58.4% |
| TOV% | 21.6% | 16.7% |
| ORB% | 29.2% | 24.0% |
| FT Rate | 18.8% | 23.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.0% | 48.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.1% | 21.3% |
| DRB% | 71.8% | 72.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.2% | 17.5% |
Game Analysis
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