Betting Lines
| Spread | UNCG -9.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Under |
| Money | UNCG -500 VMI +450 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNCG win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNCG +17 | 135 | Won |
| Massey | UNCG -5.7 (+11.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.3 (-13.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 83% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNCG -7.3 (+9.7) | 149.8 (-14.8) | 78% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNCG -5.7 (+11.3) | 145.7 (-10.7) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNCG -7.3 (+9.7) | 151.4 (-16.4) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNCG -6.5 (+10.5) | 150.1 (-15.1) | 78% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 7, 2026 | UNCG 84 – 70 VMI |
| Feb 12, 2026 | UNCG 92 – 71 VMI |
| Jan 21, 2026 | UNCG 85 – 78 VMI |
| Mar 8, 2025 | VMI 64 – 57 UNCG |
| Feb 13, 2025 | UNCG 80 – 54 VMI |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNCG | VMI |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-9 | 13-12 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 7-7 |
| Home | 7-3 | 11-1 |
| Away | 10-3 | 1-10 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.0 | 77.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.3 | 77.1 |
| Massey | 4.1 (#111) | 1.1 (#147) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.92 (#104) | -0.22 (#188) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.15 (#105) | -0.36 (#195) |
| RPI | 0.564 (#72) | 0.481 (#194) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNCG | VMI |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.0% | 45.8% |
| 3PT% | 28.7% | 39.4% |
| REB / G | 41.4 | 35.3 |
| OREB / G | 14.6 | 7.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.00 | 1.13 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.7% | 54.5% |
| TOV% | 17.7% | 17.1% |
| ORB% | 36.1% | 22.9% |
| FT Rate | 17.6% | 25.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.2% | 52.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.2% | 14.6% |
| DRB% | 74.1% | 72.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.2% | 18.9% |
Game Analysis
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