Betting Lines
| Spread | UCSB -9.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Over |
| Money | UCD +400 UCSB -450 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UCD win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCSB +3 | 175 | Lost |
| Massey | UCSB -13.3 (+10.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.7 (+30.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 15% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 8% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCSB -11.5 (+8.5) | 141.6 (+33.4) | 16% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCSB -11.0 (+8.0) | 137.5 (+37.5) | 16% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCSB -12.6 (+9.6) | 142.1 (+32.9) | 15% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UCSB -12.8 (+9.8) | 142.3 (+32.7) | 15% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 12, 2026 | UCD 79 – 73 UCSB |
| Feb 6, 2026 | UCD 85 – 75 UCSB |
| Jan 9, 2026 | UCD 93 – 86 UCSB |
| Jan 18, 2025 | UCD 64 – 60 UCSB |
| Dec 8, 2024 | UCD 71 – 60 UCSB |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UCD | UCSB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-8 | 22-5 |
| Conference | 6-4 | 13-3 |
| Home | 4-3 | 11-0 |
| Away | 4-3 | 8-4 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.6 | 73.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.2 | 63.6 |
| Massey | -6.5 (#268) | 9.4 (#61) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.98 (#251) | 1.21 (#86) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.59 (#266) | 1.37 (#95) |
| RPI | 0.460 (#232) | 0.568 (#67) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UCD | UCSB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.2% | 47.9% |
| 3PT% | 30.4% | 35.8% |
| REB / G | 30.3 | 34.5 |
| OREB / G | 7.7 | 8.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.87 | 1.57 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.1% | 54.0% |
| TOV% | 19.8% | 15.6% |
| ORB% | 22.3% | 27.0% |
| FT Rate | 29.1% | 24.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 57.2% | 46.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.9% | 21.9% |
| DRB% | 72.7% | 75.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.4% | 23.0% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.