Betting Lines
| Spread | PUR -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Over |
| Money | PUR -120 MINN +130 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PUR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PUR +19 | 143 | Won |
| Massey | PUR -2.5 (+16.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.0 (+1.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 59% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 54% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PUR -2.8 (+16.2) | 138.9 (+4.1) | 64% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PUR -2.4 (+16.6) | 140.0 (+3.0) | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PUR -2.8 (+16.2) | 141.0 (+2.0) | 64% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PUR -3.2 (+15.8) | 139.4 (+3.6) | 67% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 11, 2025 | PUR 85 – 57 MINN |
| Jan 3, 2025 | PUR 81 – 61 MINN |
| Feb 16, 2024 | PUR 84 – 76 MINN |
| Jan 20, 2023 | PUR 61 – 39 MINN |
| Dec 4, 2022 | PUR 89 – 70 MINN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PUR | MINN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-10 | 14-15 |
| Conference | 13-6 | 6-14 |
| Home | 11-1 | 13-4 |
| Away | 5-6 | 0-10 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.0 | 72.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.7 | 73.2 |
| Massey | 11.8 (#39) | 11.9 (#38) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.54 (#27) | 2.66 (#23) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.45 (#24) | 3.82 (#14) |
| RPI | 0.602 (#29) | 0.588 (#40) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PUR | MINN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.5% | 40.8% |
| 3PT% | 34.5% | 29.5% |
| REB / G | 37.6 | 38.1 |
| OREB / G | 11.1 | 11.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.11 | 1.39 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.2% | 46.9% |
| TOV% | 19.6% | 15.0% |
| ORB% | 32.2% | 28.5% |
| FT Rate | 20.7% | 30.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.8% | 47.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.8% | 18.7% |
| DRB% | 76.2% | 68.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.3% | 22.4% |
Game Analysis
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