Betting Lines
| Spread | UNI -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Over |
| Money | SIU +130 UNI -120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SIU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SIU +3 | 139 | Won |
| Massey | SIU -1.2 (+1.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.8 (-6.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 68% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 54% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SIU -0.5 (+2.5) | 141.9 (-2.9) | 56% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNI -0.5 (+3.5) | 135.9 (+3.1) | 46% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNI -0.9 (+3.9) | 140.6 (-1.6) | 46% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | SIU -0.0 (+3.0) | 141.0 (-2.0) | 49% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | SIU 59 – 57 UNI |
| Jan 29, 2026 | SIU 65 – 50 UNI |
| Jan 19, 2025 | SIU 73 – 49 UNI |
| Dec 29, 2024 | UNI 78 – 67 SIU |
| Mar 3, 2024 | UNI 82 – 70 SIU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SIU | UNI |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-14 | 10-15 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 7-11 |
| Home | 8-5 | 6-5 |
| Away | 3-8 | 3-7 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | W3 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.1 | 68.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.4 | 72.4 |
| Massey | -2.9 (#210) | -1.5 (#190) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.33 (#197) | -0.60 (#213) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.87 (#224) | -0.49 (#201) |
| RPI | 0.470 (#212) | 0.496 (#175) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SIU | UNI |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.3% | 43.8% |
| 3PT% | 37.0% | 33.7% |
| REB / G | 28.6 | 35.5 |
| OREB / G | 5.4 | 8.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.06 | 0.89 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.5% | 50.3% |
| TOV% | 18.0% | 19.3% |
| ORB% | 17.3% | 24.7% |
| FT Rate | 25.4% | 17.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.4% | 53.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.4% | 15.1% |
| DRB% | 72.4% | 79.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.4% | 23.3% |
Game Analysis
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