Betting Lines
| Spread | DUQ -10.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Under |
| Money | DUQ -600 JOES +500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DUQ win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DUQ +17 | 117 | Won |
| Massey | DUQ -9.7 (+7.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.8 (-32.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DUQ -9.0 (+8.0) | 146.0 (-29.0) | 83% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DUQ -8.3 (+8.7) | 147.2 (-30.2) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DUQ -9.9 (+7.1) | 146.4 (-29.4) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | DUQ -9.6 (+7.4) | 146.1 (-29.1) | 83% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 8, 2026 | JOES 97 – 90 DUQ |
| Jan 30, 2025 | JOES 76 – 72 DUQ |
| Jan 9, 2025 | DUQ 85 – 81 JOES |
| Feb 17, 2024 | DUQ 66 – 56 JOES |
| Jan 20, 2024 | JOES 71 – 69 DUQ |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DUQ | JOES |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-9 | 5-15 |
| Conference | 7-7 | 3-9 |
| Home | 5-1 | 3-3 |
| Away | 2-5 | 1-9 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.9 | 72.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.1 | 82.6 |
| Massey | 2.0 (#134) | -5.1 (#247) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.10 (#163) | -1.70 (#299) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.37 (#148) | -1.99 (#288) |
| RPI | 0.526 (#126) | 0.452 (#241) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DUQ | JOES |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.6% | 41.2% |
| 3PT% | 30.6% | 30.5% |
| REB / G | 36.5 | 32.8 |
| OREB / G | 11.2 | 8.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.02 | 0.97 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.7% | 48.6% |
| TOV% | 19.9% | 20.2% |
| ORB% | 30.8% | 22.1% |
| FT Rate | 20.2% | 17.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.0% | 54.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.6% | 18.6% |
| DRB% | 69.2% | 67.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.3% | 25.5% |
Game Analysis
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