Betting Lines
| Spread | MARQ -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Under |
| Money | MARQ -150 SJU +163 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MARQ win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SJU +2 | 148 | Lost |
| Massey | MARQ -3.0 (-5.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.5 (-5.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 64% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 62% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MARQ -2.8 (-4.8) | 148.8 (-0.8) | 62% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MARQ -3.0 (-5.0) | 148.9 (-0.9) | 57% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MARQ -3.0 (-5.0) | 152.6 (-4.6) | 51% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MARQ -2.9 (-4.9) | 149.1 (-1.1) | 58% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 19, 2026 | SJU 76 – 70 MARQ |
| Jan 13, 2026 | SJU 92 – 68 MARQ |
| Mar 14, 2025 | SJU 79 – 63 MARQ |
| Mar 8, 2025 | SJU 86 – 84 MARQ |
| Feb 4, 2025 | SJU 70 – 64 MARQ |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MARQ | SJU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-14 | 16-11 |
| Conference | 8-11 | 10-9 |
| Home | 7-7 | 11-3 |
| Away | 6-6 | 4-6 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.7 | 79.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.8 | 76.7 |
| Massey | 6.6 (#85) | 6.2 (#89) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.33 (#82) | 1.20 (#88) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.72 (#83) | 1.74 (#82) |
| RPI | 0.528 (#115) | 0.528 (#116) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MARQ | SJU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.6% | 45.2% |
| 3PT% | 35.1% | 34.3% |
| REB / G | 38.2 | 35.8 |
| OREB / G | 10.6 | 11.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.99 | 1.34 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.2% | 50.6% |
| TOV% | 20.3% | 16.8% |
| ORB% | 31.4% | 28.9% |
| FT Rate | 24.6% | 21.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.6% | 54.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.3% | 23.3% |
| DRB% | 71.9% | 70.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.3% | 20.6% |
Game Analysis
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