Betting Lines
| Spread | ASU -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Over |
| Money | ASU -138 STAN +150 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ASU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ASU +4 | 154 | Won |
| Massey | STAN -4.3 (+8.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.3 (+4.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 21% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 17% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | STAN -3.3 (+7.3) | 146.3 (+7.7) | 35% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | STAN -2.0 (+6.0) | 146.4 (+7.6) | 42% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | STAN -2.7 (+6.7) | 147.3 (+6.7) | 41% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | STAN -3.5 (+7.5) | 145.5 (+8.5) | 37% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 2, 2024 | STAN 71 – 62 ASU |
| Dec 30, 2023 | ASU 76 – 73 STAN |
| Feb 10, 2023 | ASU 69 – 65 STAN |
| Dec 5, 2022 | ASU 68 – 64 STAN |
| Mar 9, 2022 | STAN 71 – 70 ASU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ASU | STAN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-14 | 14-13 |
| Conference | 7-10 | 10-10 |
| Home | 7-6 | 5-4 |
| Away | 2-6 | 6-6 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L5 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.3 | 69.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.1 | 69.6 |
| Massey | 3.5 (#117) | 10.4 (#53) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.23 (#157) | 2.03 (#43) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.47 (#142) | 2.60 (#47) |
| RPI | 0.516 (#142) | 0.615 (#22) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ASU | STAN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.6% | 45.6% |
| 3PT% | 31.9% | 31.5% |
| REB / G | 31.4 | 36.6 |
| OREB / G | 7.5 | 9.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.15 | 0.83 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.8% | 50.5% |
| TOV% | 14.9% | 21.2% |
| ORB% | 20.2% | 28.5% |
| FT Rate | 25.9% | 30.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.9% | 46.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.9% | 20.8% |
| DRB% | 69.5% | 71.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 32.0% | 20.5% |
Game Analysis
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