If I had my time again / I would do it all the same. "Rush" - Big Audio Dynamite
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Baseline Tuned — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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74–35 on winners spread MAE 8.7 110 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Purdue @ Michigan State +0.2 143.3 54% 55–54 ✗
Youngstown State @ Wright State +15.7 148.1 89% 74–72 ✗
UIC @ Purdue Fort Wayne -2.2 146.0 40% 89–96 ✗
Northern Kentucky @ Cleveland State +5.9 137.6 74% 44–58 ✓
Stetson @ North Alabama +0.9 137.7 55% 86–77 ✗
North Florida @ Jacksonville +4.5 140.8 69% 65–66 ✓
Lipscomb @ Bellarmine +2.6 141.6 63% 77–72 ✗
Little Rock @ Louisiana -0.0 146.7 51% 64–66 ✗
UT Arlington @ UL Monroe -2.0 138.4 38% 77–64 ✓
Florida International @ Middle Tennessee -2.8 143.8 39% 68–55 ✓
Florida Atlantic @ Old Dominion +8.7 139.6 80% 67–71 ✓
North Texas @ UTSA -8.4 139.5 20% 77–70 ✓
Hawai'i @ UC Riverside — — — 88–83 —
Southern Miss @ UAB +17.8 133.3 90% 60–72 ✓
Air Force @ Boise State +20.2 136.4 91% 69–80 ✓
South Dakota @ Kansas City -1.2 131.5 46% 66–64 ✓
Louisiana Tech @ Western Kentucky +6.5 145.4 74% 64–66 ✓
California Baptist @ Utah Valley -1.2 154.0 43% 50–77 ✗
Grand Canyon @ Tarleton State -4.2 137.0 36% 75–72 ✓
Long Beach State @ Cal State Fullerton +8.9 152.9 82% 82–80 ✗
North Dakota @ Oral Roberts +10.4 146.4 86% 72–71 ✗
Western Illinois @ South Dakota State +14.1 153.1 88% 77–83 ✓
Omaha @ North Dakota State +9.7 134.0 85% 69–71 ✓
Utah State @ New Mexico -13.1 133.7 14% 82–46 ✓
San José State @ Fresno State +14.4 148.8 89% 64–79 ✓
Rice @ UTEP +9.3 144.1 82% 89–101 ✓
Dayton @ Davidson +8.3 132.4 80% 89–78 ✗
Cal Poly @ Cal State Bakersfield +14.5 135.5 89% 49–62 ✓
St. John's @ Creighton +14.2 158.9 88% 79–97 ✓
Ohio State @ Rutgers +3.0 144.4 65% 79–68 ✗
Wake Forest @ Duke +0.8 140.4 58% 68–79 ✓
IU Indianapolis @ Milwaukee +11.3 138.0 87% 63–71 ✓
Richmond @ George Mason -4.0 144.8 32% 77–57 ✓
Miami @ NC State +10.1 141.6 86% 64–59 ✗
Alabama @ Auburn -1.5 147.0 40% 94–90 ✓
Hartford @ UMass Lowell +0.6 130.6 51% 62–71 ✓
Hofstra @ Northeastern +2.2 136.3 62% 56–67 ✓
Texas @ West Virginia +1.7 141.6 56% 72–70 ✗
Gardner-Webb @ Winthrop +12.1 154.5 87% 65–75 ✓
South Florida @ East Carolina +2.8 130.6 65% 69–63 ✗
Mississippi State @ Vanderbilt -3.0 144.2 40% 84–81 ✓
Chattanooga @ The Citadel -1.2 152.8 53% 87–92 ✗
Northern Illinois @ Miami (OH) +9.2 133.1 86% 58–70 ✓
Drexel @ Charleston -3.1 133.9 35% 60–61 ✗
Tennessee @ Texas A&M -11.2 130.9 16% 68–54 ✓
Virginia @ Boston College -6.1 141.5 30% 61–49 ✓
Navy @ Lehigh +1.7 148.1 52% 69–61 ✗
Akron @ Eastern Michigan -12.5 147.2 17% 59–71 ✗
Morgan State @ Norfolk State -0.7 137.4 48% 78–74 ✓
Seton Hall @ DePaul -4.3 155.8 31% 76–68 ✓
Illinois State @ Evansville +4.8 139.9 70% 48–57 ✓
Missouri State @ Valparaiso -3.3 142.9 39% 81–68 ✓
Marist @ Monmouth +6.7 146.3 77% 64–80 ✓
Rhode Island @ VCU +9.3 139.1 82% 83–68 ✗
Fordham @ Duquesne +13.1 129.0 88% 45–48 ✓
Vermont @ Binghamton -2.8 141.7 37% 76–60 ✓
UMBC @ New Hampshire +1.2 134.6 54% 69–54 ✗
Maine @ NJIT +4.4 135.8 69% 54–63 ✓
Delaware @ William & Mary +3.4 131.3 62% 62–67 ✓
Montana State @ Northern Colorado -0.9 137.7 46% 76–74 ✓
Idaho State @ Northern Arizona -0.9 134.7 42% 76–70 ✓
Idaho @ Southern Utah +11.1 151.0 87% 67–83 ✓
Baylor @ TCU -11.1 147.4 17% 67–49 ✓
Washington @ California +4.6 134.8 70% 78–84 ✓
Army @ Holy Cross +1.1 140.9 54% 83–68 ✗
Youngstown State @ Wright State +14.9 147.1 88% 55–93 ✓
UNC Asheville @ Hampton -1.4 146.0 44% 71–73 ✗
South Alabama @ Coastal Carolina +7.2 147.5 77% 69–83 ✓
Houston Christian @ Lamar +3.3 146.2 62% 65–71 ✓
Georgia @ Arkansas +9.5 160.0 83% 69–99 ✓
Tulane @ Houston +16.8 129.0 90% 50–71 ✓
Texas Tech @ Iowa State -8.2 133.3 20% 91–64 ✓
Siena @ Fairfield -9.2 131.8 16% 74–58 ✓
UConn @ Butler -6.5 130.3 22% 72–60 ✓
Manhattan @ Quinnipiac +8.7 138.2 82% 45–42 ✗
UNLV @ Colorado State +11.6 142.8 88% 80–83 ✓
Rider @ Niagara +8.0 139.0 79% 55–66 ✓
La Salle @ Massachusetts +6.0 153.2 75% 67–83 ✓
Lafayette @ Bucknell -0.6 144.3 47% 83–60 ✓
Jacksonville State @ Morehead State -1.8 127.5 40% 55–56 ✗
Georgia Southern @ App State +6.1 136.6 70% 71–77 ✓
North Texas @ UTSA -9.0 138.9 20% 69–77 ✗
Western Michigan @ Kent State +12.8 140.1 87% 54–80 ✓
Oklahoma @ Kansas +7.8 145.7 78% 59–63 ✓
Bowling Green @ Central Michigan -6.4 155.3 26% 93–65 ✓
Washington State @ Stanford +3.5 133.1 61% 60–75 ✓
Northwestern State @ McNeese -0.5 151.4 45% 78–75 ✓
Kentucky @ Florida +10.6 142.1 85% 76–58 ✗
UIC @ Purdue Fort Wayne -1.7 147.0 41% 55–88 ✗
Oakland @ Green Bay +3.3 154.1 66% 78–87 ✓
UT Martin @ Belmont +17.6 151.5 91% 69–89 ✓
Austin Peay @ Eastern Illinois +4.9 147.9 71% 74–71 ✗
Radford @ Charleston Southern -4.8 123.8 25% 79–64 ✓
Kennesaw State @ Liberty +16.4 134.4 88% 47–76 ✓
Lipscomb @ Bellarmine +3.0 140.3 63% 65–58 ✗
Sam Houston @ Central Arkansas +0.3 146.7 51% 91–80 ✗
Little Rock @ Louisiana -0.1 147.3 51% 78–76 ✓
UT Arlington @ UL Monroe -1.9 137.5 38% 75–74 ✓
Southern Miss @ UAB +18.1 132.3 90% 58–62 ✓
Florida International @ Middle Tennessee -2.2 143.2 37% 56–67 ✗
Wofford @ UNC Greensboro +2.2 143.6 61% 48–45 ✗
Ball State @ Buffalo +9.3 154.6 82% 69–86 ✓
UAlbany @ Saint Joseph's +2.3 145.1 58% 64–67 ✓
SE Louisiana @ Nicholls +8.9 138.5 83% 67–87 ✓
Colgate @ Boston University -5.2 150.7 31% 86–79 ✓
Campbell @ Longwood +1.1 139.2 54% 64–58 ✗
North Florida @ Jacksonville +4.4 139.3 68% 70–68 ✗
Oklahoma State @ Kansas State -5.4 143.1 29% 70–54 ✓
Alabama State @ Arkansas-Pine Bluff +6.1 131.2 75% 82–91 ✓
Southern @ Grambling +4.7 137.6 70% 61–55 ✗

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.