Don't you understand that's not my problem? "Positively 4th Street" - Bob Dylan
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Baseline Tuned — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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28–4 on winners spread MAE 8.3 34 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Iowa @ Maryland -0.6 159.7 45% 89–67 ✓
Indiana @ Wisconsin +6.3 133.4 75% 73–80 ✓
Cincinnati @ SMU +10.6 145.5 86% 76–69 ✗
Sacred Heart @ Merrimack — — — 90–97 —
Saint Francis @ Long Island University +4.5 143.1 72% 75–78 ✓
Tennessee Tech @ Morehead State +6.4 131.7 75% 54–57 ✓
Southeast Missouri State @ Belmont +14.0 146.3 88% 66–77 ✓
UNLV @ Colorado State +15.0 141.1 88% 71–74 ✓
Jacksonville State @ Eastern Kentucky +3.5 141.7 65% 66–69 ✓
Idaho State @ Northern Arizona -0.5 131.6 45% 73–69 ✓
BYU @ Gonzaga +14.1 160.4 87% 69–86 ✓
Murray State @ Eastern Illinois +2.8 140.4 63% 68–74 ✓
Montana State @ Northern Colorado +1.5 136.8 59% 79–67 ✗
Illinois @ Northwestern -2.5 152.9 40% 81–56 ✓
Washington @ Stanford +10.2 133.3 83% 75–91 ✓
USC @ Arizona +3.8 145.5 66% 87–73 ✗
UT Martin @ Tennessee State +3.3 142.3 62% 62–74 ✓
Portland @ San Francisco +14.7 146.3 89% 64–88 ✓
Idaho @ Southern Utah +12.9 150.0 89% 80–85 ✓
Washington State @ California -0.9 131.8 42% 71–60 ✓
Nevada @ San Diego State +11.2 138.9 87% 60–65 ✓
UCLA @ Arizona State -2.5 150.1 45% 81–75 ✓
IU Indianapolis @ Milwaukee +9.1 131.0 84% 70–94 ✓
Manhattan @ Quinnipiac +9.3 132.0 85% 79–84 ✓
Saint Francis @ Long Island University +4.8 142.7 72% 58–71 ✓
Sacred Heart @ Merrimack — — — 68–62 —
Mount St. Mary's @ St. Francis Brooklyn +1.4 136.5 58% 55–67 ✓
Central Connecticut @ Bryant +15.6 159.5 89% 64–76 ✓
Rider @ Niagara +11.3 137.0 88% 76–70 ✗
Oakland @ Green Bay +3.3 153.3 63% 81–84 ✓
Kennesaw State @ Liberty +16.7 133.7 90% 63–69 ✓
South Alabama @ Coastal Carolina +5.5 148.3 73% 65–78 ✓
Georgia Southern @ App State +5.4 138.6 70% 63–66 ✓
Ohio @ Toledo +7.6 148.2 80% 78–95 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.