Betting Lines
| Spread | UNCO -4.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Over |
| Money | UNCO -180 MTST +160 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNCO win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MTST +12 | 146 | Lost |
| Massey | UNCO -2.2 (-14.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.7 (+7.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 44% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 22% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNCO -1.5 (-13.5) | 136.8 (+9.2) | 59% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNCO -1.8 (-13.8) | 138.1 (+7.9) | 52% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNCO -1.3 (-13.3) | 140.6 (+5.4) | 53% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UNCO -0.5 (-12.5) | 138.3 (+7.7) | 50% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 20, 2026 | MTST 73 – 68 UNCO |
| Jan 2, 2026 | MTST 89 – 75 UNCO |
| Mar 12, 2025 | UNCO 72 – 45 MTST |
| Feb 9, 2025 | UNCO 73 – 66 MTST |
| Jan 10, 2025 | UNCO 83 – 82 MTST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNCO | MTST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-11 | 13-10 |
| Conference | 6-8 | 8-6 |
| Home | 6-5 | 5-3 |
| Away | 4-5 | 6-6 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.0 | 71.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.5 | 72.1 |
| Massey | -5.1 (#249) | -3.9 (#237) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.26 (#260) | -0.42 (#201) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.31 (#286) | -0.43 (#191) |
| RPI | 0.403 (#278) | 0.479 (#192) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNCO | MTST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.4% | 40.5% |
| 3PT% | 34.7% | 36.0% |
| REB / G | 30.3 | 29.8 |
| OREB / G | 7.1 | 6.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.52 | 0.91 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.5% | 47.2% |
| TOV% | 23.2% | 17.9% |
| ORB% | 22.0% | 18.7% |
| FT Rate | 24.4% | 23.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.3% | 45.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.6% | 19.5% |
| DRB% | 73.0% | 66.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.3% | 35.5% |
Game Analysis
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