Betting Lines
| Spread | IOWA -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 153.0 Over |
| Money | MD +200 IOWA -240 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MD win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | IOWA +22 | 156 | Lost |
| Massey | IOWA -3.8 (-18.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 165.8 (-9.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 34% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 27% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | IOWA -0.6 (-21.4) | 159.7 (-3.7) | 45% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | IOWA -2.3 (-19.7) | 156.0 (-0.0) | 45% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | IOWA -2.6 (-19.4) | 155.7 (+0.3) | 43% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | IOWA -1.2 (-20.8) | 156.8 (-0.8) | 47% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 11, 2026 | IOWA 75 – 64 MD |
| Feb 11, 2026 | MD 77 – 70 IOWA |
| Dec 6, 2025 | IOWA 83 – 64 MD |
| Feb 16, 2025 | MD 101 – 75 IOWA |
| Feb 15, 2024 | MD 78 – 66 IOWA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MD | IOWA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-14 | 22-9 |
| Conference | 9-11 | 14-6 |
| Home | 11-6 | 14-2 |
| Away | 4-6 | 6-4 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.8 | 83.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.9 | 72.7 |
| Massey | 11.5 (#39) | 18.6 (#5) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.95 (#51) | 3.21 (#12) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.07 (#39) | 4.69 (#8) |
| RPI | 0.615 (#31) | 0.588 (#57) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MD | IOWA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.4% | 47.9% |
| 3PT% | 36.6% | 37.3% |
| REB / G | 34.5 | 42.1 |
| OREB / G | 8.1 | 14.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.32 | 2.07 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.6% | 55.6% |
| TOV% | 15.7% | 13.4% |
| ORB% | 25.5% | 36.6% |
| FT Rate | 22.8% | 27.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.8% | 48.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.5% | 19.7% |
| DRB% | 74.4% | 66.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.3% | 14.8% |
Game Analysis
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