Betting Lines
| Spread | APP -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 131.0 Under |
| Money | APP -140 GASO +120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | APP win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | APP +3 | 129 | Won |
| Massey | APP -7.2 (-4.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.2 (-7.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 71% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | APP -5.4 (-2.4) | 138.6 (-9.6) | 70% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | APP -4.3 (-1.3) | 137.1 (-8.1) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | APP -5.4 (-2.4) | 136.2 (-7.2) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | APP -5.5 (-2.5) | 138.7 (-9.7) | 73% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | APP 89 – 74 GASO |
| Feb 12, 2026 | APP 81 – 65 GASO |
| Feb 26, 2025 | GASO 61 – 59 APP |
| Feb 20, 2025 | APP 79 – 74 GASO |
| Mar 9, 2024 | APP 85 – 80 GASO |
Game Analysis
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