Betting Lines
| Spread | ILL -6.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 148.0 Under |
| Money | NU +225 ILL -265 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ILL +25 | 137 | Lost |
| Massey | ILL -5.3 (-19.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 155.5 (-18.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 52% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 52% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ILL -2.5 (-22.5) | 152.9 (-15.9) | 40% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ILL -4.5 (-20.5) | 151.6 (-14.6) | 36% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ILL -2.4 (-22.6) | 155.1 (-18.1) | 40% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ILL -3.5 (-21.5) | 152.7 (-15.7) | 38% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 5, 2026 | ILL 84 – 44 NU |
| Jan 15, 2026 | ILL 79 – 68 NU |
| Jan 26, 2025 | ILL 83 – 74 NU |
| Dec 7, 2024 | NU 70 – 66 ILL |
| Jan 25, 2024 | NU 96 – 91 ILL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NU | ILL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-15 | 24-7 |
| Conference | 6-13 | 16-4 |
| Home | 7-6 | 11-2 |
| Away | 2-8 | 9-3 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 4-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.0 | 80.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.0 | 68.6 |
| Massey | 10.9 (#43) | 19.5 (#4) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.36 (#30) | 2.87 (#19) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.12 (#17) | 4.66 (#9) |
| RPI | 0.592 (#53) | 0.636 (#16) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NU | ILL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.7% | 52.7% |
| 3PT% | 40.0% | 41.8% |
| REB / G | 35.1 | 42.0 |
| OREB / G | 6.6 | 10.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.68 | 1.27 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.3% | 59.0% |
| TOV% | 15.2% | 18.9% |
| ORB% | 20.5% | 34.1% |
| FT Rate | 24.5% | 25.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.0% | 46.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.9% | 15.3% |
| DRB% | 74.3% | 79.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.2% | 19.4% |
Game Analysis
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