Betting Lines
| Spread | CSU -10.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 147.0 Under |
| Money | CSU -550 UNLV +425 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CSU +3 | 145 | Won |
| Massey | CSU -17.2 (-14.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.6 (+4.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CSU -15.0 (-12.0) | 141.1 (+3.9) | 88% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CSU -11.5 (-8.5) | 145.1 (-0.1) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CSU -14.7 (-11.7) | 142.1 (+2.9) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CSU -15.1 (-12.1) | 140.2 (+4.8) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 19, 2026 | CSU 91 – 86 UNLV |
| Jan 10, 2026 | CSU 70 – 62 UNLV |
| Feb 23, 2025 | CSU 61 – 53 UNLV |
| Jan 11, 2025 | CSU 84 – 62 UNLV |
| Feb 25, 2024 | UNLV 66 – 60 CSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CSU | UNLV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-8 | 12-15 |
| Conference | 14-4 | 8-10 |
| Home | 10-1 | 8-4 |
| Away | 6-4 | 3-7 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 1-4 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.4 | 67.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.4 | 69.7 |
| Massey | 10.2 (#49) | -3.7 (#230) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.10 (#46) | -0.80 (#230) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.36 (#65) | -0.85 (#220) |
| RPI | 0.671 (#9) | 0.439 (#247) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CSU | UNLV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.0% | 41.5% |
| 3PT% | 37.3% | 35.7% |
| REB / G | 34.1 | 31.2 |
| OREB / G | 6.0 | 8.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.02 | 0.87 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.4% | 50.9% |
| TOV% | 20.5% | 19.6% |
| ORB% | 18.8% | 23.3% |
| FT Rate | 26.9% | 15.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.4% | 54.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.1% | 19.1% |
| DRB% | 76.7% | 69.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 10.9% | 31.1% |
Game Analysis
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