Betting Lines
| Spread | NAU -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 133.5 Over |
| Money | NAU -140 IDST +120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NAU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | IDST +4 | 142 | Lost |
| Massey | IDST -2.0 (-2.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 129.9 (+12.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 70% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 61% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | IDST -0.5 (-3.5) | 131.6 (+10.4) | 45% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | IDST -1.2 (-2.8) | 130.5 (+11.5) | 44% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NAU -0.1 (-4.1) | 131.2 (+10.8) | 45% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | IDST -0.9 (-3.1) | 132.3 (+9.7) | 40% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 8, 2026 | IDST 73 – 65 NAU |
| Feb 6, 2026 | NAU 79 – 73 IDST |
| Jan 11, 2026 | IDST 81 – 79 NAU |
| Mar 4, 2025 | NAU 82 – 79 IDST |
| Jan 3, 2025 | IDST 72 – 67 NAU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NAU | IDST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 6-16 | 13-11 |
| Conference | 4-10 | 8-6 |
| Home | 1-7 | 8-3 |
| Away | 4-7 | 5-5 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 63.2 | 61.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.5 | 64.5 |
| Massey | -11.4 (#315) | -6.0 (#266) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.53 (#276) | -1.79 (#292) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.54 (#296) | -2.38 (#288) |
| RPI | 0.473 (#203) | 0.353 (#317) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NAU | IDST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.5% | 41.6% |
| 3PT% | 30.2% | 31.2% |
| REB / G | 28.7 | 34.5 |
| OREB / G | 8.1 | 9.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.87 | 0.53 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 44.9% | 47.3% |
| TOV% | 16.8% | 29.5% |
| ORB% | 22.3% | 31.9% |
| FT Rate | 23.4% | 25.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 61.7% | 51.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.7% | 17.5% |
| DRB% | 73.1% | 79.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.3% | 22.3% |
Game Analysis
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