Betting Lines
| Spread | ARIZ -4.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 138.0 Over |
| Money | ARIZ -180 USC +160 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ARIZ win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USC +14 | 160 | Lost |
| Massey | ARIZ -1.8 (-15.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.8 (+11.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 82% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 83% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ARIZ -3.8 (-17.8) | 145.5 (+14.5) | 66% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ARIZ -1.9 (-15.9) | 145.4 (+14.6) | 64% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ARIZ -2.5 (-16.5) | 147.9 (+12.1) | 67% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | ARIZ -3.3 (-17.3) | 145.0 (+15.0) | 59% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 14, 2024 | ARIZ 70 – 49 USC |
| Mar 10, 2024 | USC 78 – 65 ARIZ |
| Jan 18, 2024 | ARIZ 82 – 67 USC |
| Mar 3, 2023 | ARIZ 87 – 81 USC |
| Jan 20, 2023 | ARIZ 81 – 66 USC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ARIZ | USC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-9 | 25-8 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 15-5 |
| Home | 12-4 | 13-2 |
| Away | 5-5 | 7-3 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 5-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.4 | 74.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.6 | 65.1 |
| Massey | 13.9 (#20) | 15.4 (#14) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.73 (#21) | 1.78 (#61) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.03 (#20) | 3.06 (#40) |
| RPI | 0.612 (#34) | 0.608 (#40) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ARIZ | USC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.9% | 48.2% |
| 3PT% | 36.5% | 36.7% |
| REB / G | 42.6 | 41.5 |
| OREB / G | 13.6 | 12.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.24 | 1.09 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.8% | 54.0% |
| TOV% | 17.3% | 19.0% |
| ORB% | 37.9% | 36.4% |
| FT Rate | 31.3% | 22.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.9% | 40.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.0% | 18.0% |
| DRB% | 76.5% | 68.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.9% | 17.2% |
Game Analysis
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