Betting Lines
| Spread | SF -17.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Over |
| Money | SF -2400 PORT +1200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SF +24 | 152 | Won |
| Massey | SF -18.9 (+5.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.0 (+4.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 82% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SF -14.7 (+9.3) | 146.3 (+5.7) | 89% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SF -14.0 (+10.0) | 147.7 (+4.3) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SF -15.9 (+8.1) | 147.9 (+4.1) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SF -15.6 (+8.4) | 146.1 (+5.9) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 8, 2026 | SF 82 – 65 PORT |
| Jan 5, 2026 | SF 73 – 68 PORT |
| Jan 10, 2025 | SF 81 – 72 PORT |
| Mar 10, 2024 | SF 72 – 51 PORT |
| Jan 28, 2024 | SF 76 – 64 PORT |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SF | PORT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-14 | 6-15 |
| Conference | 4-9 | 0-11 |
| Home | 3-5 | 5-8 |
| Away | 4-6 | 1-6 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L13 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.4 | 67.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.3 | 85.1 |
| Massey | 6.3 (#83) | -9.3 (#301) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.52 (#134) | -0.42 (#202) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.61 (#140) | -1.72 (#257) |
| RPI | 0.546 (#100) | 0.457 (#220) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SF | PORT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.4% | 38.1% |
| 3PT% | 36.9% | 27.1% |
| REB / G | 35.5 | 36.5 |
| OREB / G | 9.0 | 8.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.05 | 0.64 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.5% | 42.3% |
| TOV% | 17.7% | 20.4% |
| ORB% | 24.7% | 23.2% |
| FT Rate | 19.2% | 34.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.4% | 50.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.7% | 18.4% |
| DRB% | 75.0% | 73.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 31.9% | 18.8% |
Game Analysis
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