Betting Lines
| Spread | TOL -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 146.0 Over |
| Money | TOL -200 OHIO +175 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TOL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TOL +17 | 173 | Won |
| Massey | TOL -5.9 (+11.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.7 (+22.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 86% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TOL -7.6 (+9.4) | 148.2 (+24.8) | 80% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TOL -5.7 (+11.3) | 145.3 (+27.7) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TOL -7.9 (+9.1) | 149.2 (+23.8) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TOL -7.3 (+9.7) | 149.2 (+23.8) | 80% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | TOL 79 – 67 OHIO |
| Jan 14, 2026 | TOL 101 – 85 OHIO |
| Mar 13, 2025 | TOL 90 – 85 OHIO |
| Mar 8, 2025 | TOL 96 – 82 OHIO |
| Jan 29, 2025 | TOL 86 – 83 OHIO |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TOL | OHIO |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-9 | 17-8 |
| Conference | 15-4 | 9-5 |
| Home | 12-1 | 8-3 |
| Away | 7-5 | 4-4 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 5-1 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 81.1 | 78.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.6 | 72.6 |
| Massey | 7.7 (#69) | 5.2 (#97) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.75 (#63) | 0.55 (#132) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.66 (#56) | 0.72 (#133) |
| RPI | 0.563 (#80) | 0.536 (#111) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TOL | OHIO |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.7% | 48.3% |
| 3PT% | 38.0% | 37.6% |
| REB / G | 38.2 | 33.1 |
| OREB / G | 12.1 | 9.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.36 | 1.44 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.3% | 55.7% |
| TOV% | 16.6% | 16.7% |
| ORB% | 32.0% | 28.6% |
| FT Rate | 23.5% | 22.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.9% | 50.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.0% | 20.4% |
| DRB% | 70.9% | 71.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.1% | 26.8% |
Game Analysis
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