Betting Lines
| Spread | TNST -6.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Under |
| Money | TNST -250 UTM +220 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TNST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TNST +12 | 136 | Won |
| Massey | TNST -6.7 (+5.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.6 (-13.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 13% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 10% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TNST -3.3 (+8.7) | 142.3 (-6.3) | 62% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TNST -4.0 (+8.0) | 142.8 (-6.8) | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TNST -2.8 (+9.2) | 147.4 (-11.4) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TNST -3.4 (+8.6) | 144.2 (-8.2) | 63% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 7, 2026 | TNST 68 – 55 UTM |
| Feb 28, 2026 | TNST 67 – 42 UTM |
| Dec 19, 2025 | TNST 78 – 71 UTM |
| Feb 19, 2025 | TNST 86 – 75 UTM |
| Jan 22, 2025 | TNST 81 – 80 UTM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TNST | UTM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 4-19 | 8-16 |
| Conference | 3-17 | 6-14 |
| Home | 4-8 | 6-7 |
| Away | 0-10 | 2-9 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L3 | W1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.4 | 64.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.3 | 77.7 |
| Massey | -10.1 (#304) | -13.5 (#328) |
| Bradley-Terry | -3.59 (#335) | -1.12 (#249) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -5.04 (#333) | -2.20 (#278) |
| RPI | 0.315 (#332) | 0.437 (#249) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TNST | UTM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.4% | 38.8% |
| 3PT% | 26.2% | 35.3% |
| REB / G | 35.8 | 32.2 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 9.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.69 | 0.94 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.1% | 44.8% |
| TOV% | 22.4% | 18.8% |
| ORB% | 25.6% | 25.2% |
| FT Rate | 20.5% | 25.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.9% | 59.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.4% | 20.3% |
| DRB% | 70.8% | 70.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 41.1% | 24.8% |
Game Analysis
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