They were all in love with dying, they we're doing it in Texas. "Pepper" - Butthole Surfers
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Baseline — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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76–33 on winners spread MAE 8.6 110 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Purdue @ Michigan State +0.6 143.0 53% 55–54 ✗
Youngstown State @ Wright State +16.4 148.7 88% 74–72 ✗
UIC @ Purdue Fort Wayne -2.2 146.1 55% 89–96 ✗
Northern Kentucky @ Cleveland State +5.3 139.2 72% 44–58 ✓
Stetson @ North Alabama -1.1 143.7 36% 86–77 ✓
North Florida @ Jacksonville +4.9 140.0 69% 65–66 ✓
Lipscomb @ Bellarmine +1.5 143.1 54% 77–72 ✗
Little Rock @ Louisiana -0.6 148.6 52% 64–66 ✗
UT Arlington @ UL Monroe -2.1 139.3 37% 77–64 ✓
Florida International @ Middle Tennessee -2.8 141.1 45% 68–55 ✓
Florida Atlantic @ Old Dominion +9.7 138.1 79% 67–71 ✓
North Texas @ UTSA -7.7 138.9 21% 77–70 ✓
Hawai'i @ UC Riverside — — — 88–83 —
Southern Miss @ UAB +18.2 134.4 90% 60–72 ✓
Air Force @ Boise State +20.9 135.7 91% 69–80 ✓
South Dakota @ Kansas City -0.7 132.6 34% 66–64 ✓
Louisiana Tech @ Western Kentucky +5.7 144.8 73% 64–66 ✓
California Baptist @ Utah Valley -0.2 152.0 61% 50–77 ✗
Grand Canyon @ Tarleton State -5.5 139.9 28% 75–72 ✓
Long Beach State @ Cal State Fullerton +8.2 150.4 77% 82–80 ✗
North Dakota @ Oral Roberts +10.4 146.6 82% 72–71 ✗
Western Illinois @ South Dakota State +13.2 152.6 87% 77–83 ✓
Omaha @ North Dakota State +10.4 134.9 86% 69–71 ✓
Utah State @ New Mexico -16.0 136.1 12% 82–46 ✓
San José State @ Fresno State +15.8 148.7 89% 64–79 ✓
Rice @ UTEP +10.2 145.2 80% 89–101 ✓
Dayton @ Davidson +9.0 134.0 80% 89–78 ✗
Cal Poly @ Cal State Bakersfield +16.0 135.7 90% 49–62 ✓
St. John's @ Creighton +14.2 157.1 87% 79–97 ✓
Ohio State @ Rutgers +2.6 144.6 58% 79–68 ✗
Wake Forest @ Duke +0.7 140.7 59% 68–79 ✓
IU Indianapolis @ Milwaukee +12.1 136.9 84% 63–71 ✓
Richmond @ George Mason -3.7 145.0 37% 77–57 ✓
Miami @ NC State +9.7 141.7 83% 64–59 ✗
Alabama @ Auburn -1.7 146.5 42% 94–90 ✓
Hartford @ UMass Lowell +0.1 132.2 53% 62–71 ✓
Hofstra @ Northeastern +2.1 137.8 60% 56–67 ✓
Texas @ West Virginia +1.9 141.3 55% 72–70 ✗
Gardner-Webb @ Winthrop +11.8 155.3 85% 65–75 ✓
South Florida @ East Carolina +2.6 130.8 63% 69–63 ✗
Mississippi State @ Vanderbilt -3.1 144.7 34% 84–81 ✓
Chattanooga @ The Citadel -1.3 154.0 51% 87–92 ✗
Northern Illinois @ Miami (OH) +9.5 135.2 85% 58–70 ✓
Drexel @ Charleston -2.6 134.4 51% 60–61 ✗
Tennessee @ Texas A&M -11.4 130.4 15% 68–54 ✓
Virginia @ Boston College -6.0 141.9 27% 61–49 ✓
Navy @ Lehigh +1.0 149.2 50% 69–61 ✗
Akron @ Eastern Michigan -12.4 149.7 21% 59–71 ✗
Morgan State @ Norfolk State -1.4 138.1 43% 78–74 ✓
Seton Hall @ DePaul -4.0 155.5 28% 76–68 ✓
Illinois State @ Evansville +5.1 140.7 68% 48–57 ✓
Missouri State @ Valparaiso -3.0 144.3 35% 81–68 ✓
Marist @ Monmouth +6.1 145.9 72% 64–80 ✓
Rhode Island @ VCU +8.3 139.9 78% 83–68 ✗
Fordham @ Duquesne +14.9 128.3 88% 45–48 ✓
Vermont @ Binghamton -3.1 142.5 35% 76–60 ✓
UMBC @ New Hampshire +0.6 134.2 46% 69–54 ✗
Maine @ NJIT +4.3 136.0 70% 54–63 ✓
Delaware @ William & Mary +3.5 131.4 65% 62–67 ✓
Montana State @ Northern Colorado -1.2 138.6 48% 76–74 ✓
Idaho State @ Northern Arizona -1.6 136.5 43% 76–70 ✓
Idaho @ Southern Utah +11.7 152.1 86% 67–83 ✓
Baylor @ TCU -12.5 146.7 17% 67–49 ✓
Washington @ California +4.6 135.2 70% 78–84 ✓
Army @ Holy Cross +0.6 141.9 52% 83–68 ✗
Youngstown State @ Wright State +15.8 147.2 87% 55–93 ✓
UNC Asheville @ Hampton -1.6 145.7 47% 71–73 ✗
South Alabama @ Coastal Carolina +7.5 149.1 75% 69–83 ✓
Houston Christian @ Lamar +2.9 146.9 61% 65–71 ✓
Georgia @ Arkansas +9.4 159.5 83% 69–99 ✓
Tulane @ Houston +18.2 127.4 90% 50–71 ✓
Texas Tech @ Iowa State -8.7 134.9 18% 91–64 ✓
Siena @ Fairfield -8.1 132.7 22% 74–58 ✓
UConn @ Butler -6.3 130.6 22% 72–60 ✓
Manhattan @ Quinnipiac +8.3 137.0 79% 45–42 ✗
UNLV @ Colorado State +12.1 142.6 86% 80–83 ✓
Rider @ Niagara +7.4 137.5 76% 55–66 ✓
La Salle @ Massachusetts +6.4 154.3 71% 67–83 ✓
Lafayette @ Bucknell -0.8 144.5 46% 83–60 ✓
Jacksonville State @ Morehead State -2.7 126.3 41% 55–56 ✗
Georgia Southern @ App State +5.7 137.4 72% 71–77 ✓
North Texas @ UTSA -8.3 138.1 19% 69–77 ✗
Western Michigan @ Kent State +13.8 140.2 85% 54–80 ✓
Oklahoma @ Kansas +6.6 145.7 73% 59–63 ✓
Bowling Green @ Central Michigan -6.7 155.4 24% 93–65 ✓
Washington State @ Stanford +3.6 135.7 61% 60–75 ✓
Northwestern State @ McNeese -0.7 153.4 32% 78–75 ✓
Kentucky @ Florida +10.1 143.3 81% 76–58 ✗
UIC @ Purdue Fort Wayne -1.9 147.9 47% 55–88 ✗
Oakland @ Green Bay +3.3 154.1 68% 78–87 ✓
UT Martin @ Belmont +20.7 149.9 91% 69–89 ✓
Austin Peay @ Eastern Illinois +4.6 148.5 70% 74–71 ✗
Radford @ Charleston Southern -5.1 125.4 24% 79–64 ✓
Kennesaw State @ Liberty +17.0 134.8 85% 47–76 ✓
Lipscomb @ Bellarmine +2.5 141.6 58% 65–58 ✗
Sam Houston @ Central Arkansas -0.0 147.4 51% 91–80 ✓
Little Rock @ Louisiana -0.7 149.3 52% 78–76 ✓
UT Arlington @ UL Monroe -2.3 138.5 37% 75–74 ✓
Southern Miss @ UAB +18.9 132.4 90% 58–62 ✓
Florida International @ Middle Tennessee -2.8 144.1 42% 56–67 ✗
Wofford @ UNC Greensboro +2.0 144.7 56% 48–45 ✗
Ball State @ Buffalo +9.9 155.4 80% 69–86 ✓
UAlbany @ Saint Joseph's +2.4 146.0 52% 64–67 ✓
SE Louisiana @ Nicholls +8.7 138.0 80% 67–87 ✓
Colgate @ Boston University -5.4 148.9 26% 86–79 ✓
Campbell @ Longwood +0.9 140.7 57% 64–58 ✗
North Florida @ Jacksonville +4.7 138.4 68% 70–68 ✗
Oklahoma State @ Kansas State -5.9 144.1 30% 70–54 ✓
Alabama State @ Arkansas-Pine Bluff +7.2 137.7 78% 82–91 ✓
Southern @ Grambling +4.4 139.0 66% 61–55 ✗

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.