But where the fuck is the waitress at with my drinks! "Stand Up" - Ludacris
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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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67–40 on winners spread MAE 9.6 107 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
High Point @ Gardner-Webb +9.3 143.2 80% 59–55 ✗
Cal State Northridge @ Cal Poly -3.5 145.8 37% 70–76 ✗
Green Bay @ Cleveland State +7.7 136.1 76% 68–74 ✓
Stetson @ Florida Gulf Coast +0.9 134.7 53% 63–64 ✓
North Alabama @ North Florida -0.6 144.4 48% 82–78 ✓
Liberty @ Jacksonville -12.9 135.0 12% 59–54 ✓
App State @ Troy -4.0 128.5 36% 62–71 ✗
Ohio @ Buffalo +4.4 163.9 66% 76–75 ✗
UC Santa Barbara @ UC Davis -11.5 152.4 15% 72–51 ✓
Charleston Southern @ Campbell +11.6 137.1 85% 58–59 ✓
Oakland @ Purdue Fort Wayne +4.8 165.2 67% 81–66 ✗
UL Monroe @ Little Rock +11.9 139.9 86% 62–66 ✓
Northern Colorado @ Northern Arizona -4.3 137.2 35% 64–68 ✗
Manhattan @ Saint Peter's +12.4 118.8 87% 55–59 ✓
North Dakota State @ Kansas City -0.7 118.6 48% 71–67 ✓
Omaha @ South Dakota +12.9 143.0 88% 59–91 ✓
Tarleton State @ Utah Valley +6.7 148.5 73% 60–73 ✓
Western Illinois @ North Dakota +4.1 137.6 65% 81–83 ✓
Coastal Carolina @ Georgia Southern -6.3 143.0 28% 79–62 ✓
UT Arlington @ Arkansas State -3.2 147.3 39% 75–83 ✗
Iowa @ Illinois +1.7 169.0 56% 75–80 ✓
Robert Morris @ Wright State +20.9 149.0 97% 70–79 ✓
New Mexico State @ Grand Canyon +11.6 124.8 85% 62–70 ✓
Utah Tech @ California Baptist +13.5 154.5 89% 74–89 ✓
Boise State @ Colorado State +1.3 142.6 55% 85–77 ✗
Cal State Fullerton @ Cal State Bakersfield +10.7 127.0 83% 90–84 ✗
UC Irvine @ Hawai'i -1.1 143.7 46% 53–51 ✓
Alabama @ Oklahoma -0.7 153.5 48% 61–66 ✗
Tulsa @ East Carolina -1.9 125.8 43% 77–68 ✓
Clemson @ Duke -0.0 131.2 50% 53–79 ✗
Loyola Maryland @ Navy +5.9 140.7 71% 52–70 ✓
Texas A&M @ Kansas State -1.7 124.2 44% 68–61 ✓
Providence @ Georgetown -3.0 144.9 39% 72–73 ✗
Siena @ Marist -5.5 126.8 31% 54–55 ✗
La Salle @ VCU +15.0 135.3 91% 62–73 ✓
Furman @ Western Carolina -11.0 163.7 16% 75–69 ✓
William & Mary @ Towson +3.5 140.6 62% 84–74 ✗
Hofstra @ UNC Wilmington +2.1 148.1 57% 82–73 ✗
Texas Tech @ LSU -0.7 153.4 48% 76–71 ✓
Florida @ West Virginia +2.5 147.9 59% 85–80 ✗
TCU @ Missouri +12.5 135.9 87% 98–102 ✓
Florida A&M @ North Carolina A&T -3.1 148.6 39% 58–70 ✗
George Mason @ St. Bonaventure +13.0 128.8 88% 67–84 ✓
New Hampshire @ Binghamton -7.2 142.3 26% 44–65 ✗
Hartford @ Stony Brook +0.4 130.8 51% 59–57 ✗
Sacred Heart @ Mount St. Mary's +7.8 127.3 76% 61–58 ✗
Miami @ Wake Forest +7.3 135.7 75% 54–66 ✓
Colgate @ Holy Cross -21.8 160.8 2% 74–63 ✓
Bucknell @ Lehigh +0.7 141.3 52% 84–70 ✗
Morehead State @ Tennessee Tech -7.8 128.3 24% 74–55 ✓
Western Michigan @ Miami (OH) +10.0 134.0 82% 56–65 ✓
Ball State @ Akron +5.9 148.6 71% 42–74 ✓
Elon @ Delaware +4.0 127.2 64% 43–66 ✓
Utah @ Colorado +12.1 136.2 87% 77–74 ✗
Wisconsin @ Penn State -1.0 142.9 46% 71–81 ✗
Southern Miss @ Louisiana Tech +11.9 128.8 86% 62–65 ✓
Morgan State @ Coppin State -7.1 158.8 26% 79–76 ✓
Abilene Christian @ Incarnate Word -15.6 125.7 8% 75–67 ✓
Milwaukee @ IU Indianapolis -2.9 143.9 39% 83–76 ✓
Weber State @ Idaho -20.6 143.9 3% 81–62 ✓
Villanova @ Seton Hall -3.6 147.9 37% 80–72 ✓
Auburn @ Baylor +18.4 156.7 95% 72–84 ✓
Florida State @ Georgia Tech -3.6 155.5 37% 65–76 ✗
Monmouth @ Niagara -3.7 149.2 37% 74–83 ✗
Northern Iowa @ Southern Illinois +2.9 147.8 60% 74–62 ✗
UCF @ Wichita State +4.4 138.9 66% 88–93 ✓
Long Island University @ St. Francis Brooklyn +0.9 151.9 53% 102–88 ✗
Rhode Island @ Dayton -1.4 136.3 45% 56–67 ✗
Longwood @ Presbyterian -3.8 118.5 36% 54–66 ✗
Bellarmine @ Kennesaw State -9.3 130.4 20% 84–79 ✓
Coastal Carolina @ Georgia Southern -6.3 143.0 28% 58–61 ✗
Florida International @ Charlotte +7.6 137.0 75% 65–68 ✓
Arkansas @ Oklahoma State -1.4 155.3 45% 77–81 ✗
Alabama A&M @ Prairie View A&M +2.7 140.1 60% 57–79 ✓
Mercer @ Wofford +3.7 147.9 63% 69–72 ✓
The Citadel @ East Tennessee State +9.0 155.8 79% 84–112 ✓
Central Michigan @ Kent State +19.3 160.8 96% 76–83 ✓
Delaware State @ Norfolk State +15.5 157.3 92% 66–94 ✓
Southern @ Alcorn State -4.5 144.9 34% 76–59 ✓
High Point @ Gardner-Webb +9.3 143.2 80% 72–69 ✗
California @ Arizona +14.1 142.7 90% 50–71 ✓
LSU New Orleans @ SE Louisiana -0.2 144.2 49% 73–79 ✗
Robert Morris @ Wright State +20.9 149.0 97% 56–86 ✓
UIC @ Northern Kentucky +2.2 134.6 58% 67–69 ✓
Detroit Mercy @ Youngstown State -2.1 152.3 42% 77–72 ✓
SIU Edwardsville @ UT Martin -6.0 145.0 29% 76–60 ✓
Tennessee State @ Austin Peay +6.5 137.3 72% 56–71 ✓
North Alabama @ North Florida -0.6 144.4 48% 72–82 ✗
Northwestern State @ Central Arkansas +4.5 160.4 66% 81–77 ✗
UT Arlington @ Arkansas State -3.2 147.3 39% 65–64 ✓
UL Monroe @ Little Rock +11.9 139.9 86% 49–65 ✓
Louisiana @ Texas State +3.0 130.5 61% 74–73 ✗
App State @ Troy -4.0 128.5 36% 59–65 ✗
Toledo @ Bowling Green -3.0 159.9 39% 84–66 ✓
Charleston Southern @ Campbell +11.6 137.1 85% 67–75 ✓
Xavier @ Butler -6.2 132.1 29% 68–55 ✓
McNeese @ Lamar +5.5 151.5 69% 56–64 ✓
Virginia @ Virginia Tech -5.1 126.5 32% 51–65 ✗
Kansas @ Tennessee +5.2 129.5 68% 61–80 ✓
Air Force @ San José State -1.8 141.7 44% 62–75 ✗
Ole Miss @ Georgia -3.0 140.8 39% 61–71 ✗
Eastern Illinois @ Southeast Missouri State +3.0 145.7 61% 44–75 ✓
Liberty @ Jacksonville -12.9 135.0 12% 64–58 ✓
Pacific @ BYU +13.3 133.1 89% 87–95 ✓
Iowa State @ Mississippi State +10.1 138.3 82% 56–95 ✓
Mississippi Valley State @ Jackson State +28.5 140.0 100% 56–106 ✓
Arkansas-Pine Bluff @ Grambling +14.6 138.8 91% 71–74 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.