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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
22–9 on winners
spread MAE 7.6
31 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UNC Asheville
@
Winthrop
|
+14.0 | 161.8 | 90% | 80–84 | ✓ |
Bradley
@
Valparaiso
|
-6.1 | 125.0 | 29% | 85–91 | ✗ |
Michigan State
@
Rutgers
|
+6.1 | 145.2 | 71% | 37–67 | ✓ |
Louisiana Tech
@
Southern Miss
|
-6.1 | 127.7 | 29% | 76–63 | ✓ |
UTEP
@
UTSA
|
-2.5 | 155.6 | 41% | 79–86 | ✗ |
TCU
@
Kansas
|
+13.5 | 138.1 | 89% | 51–59 | ✓ |
Memphis
@
SMU
|
+5.6 | 143.4 | 69% | 65–67 | ✓ |
Tennessee State
@
Murray State
|
+8.4 | 130.4 | 78% | 53–73 | ✓ |
Morehead State
@
Jacksonville State
|
+3.7 | 123.6 | 63% | 85–66 | ✗ |
Gonzaga
@
San Diego
|
-28.5 | 160.7 | 0% | 90–62 | ✓ |
Houston
@
Tulane
|
-17.9 | 122.9 | 5% | 83–60 | ✓ |
Wyoming
@
San Diego State
|
+18.2 | 148.2 | 95% | 57–87 | ✓ |
SIU Edwardsville
@
Southeast Missouri State
|
+1.8 | 149.2 | 57% | 62–64 | ✓ |
Eastern Illinois
@
UT Martin
|
-7.4 | 153.8 | 25% | 41–51 | ✗ |
Belmont
@
Austin Peay
|
-9.4 | 154.3 | 20% | 81–76 | ✓ |
UAB
@
Middle Tennessee
|
-16.5 | 127.1 | 7% | 70–59 | ✓ |
Weber State
@
Idaho
|
-19.7 | 145.6 | 4% | 81–56 | ✓ |
Air Force
@
San José State
|
-2.2 | 146.0 | 42% | 58–59 | ✗ |
Stanford
@
Arizona
|
+6.5 | 148.1 | 72% | 73–64 | ✗ |
California
@
Arizona State
|
+6.7 | 146.1 | 73% | 68–72 | ✓ |
New Mexico
@
Fresno State
|
+8.4 | 121.9 | 78% | 62–64 | ✓ |
North Texas
@
Rice
|
-4.5 | 133.6 | 34% | 79–74 | ✓ |
Monmouth
@
Niagara
|
-2.5 | 150.1 | 41% | 77–67 | ✓ |
Detroit Mercy
@
Youngstown State
|
-2.1 | 151.8 | 42% | 78–75 | ✓ |
Louisiana
@
Texas State
|
+3.8 | 131.7 | 64% | 62–60 | ✗ |
|
UNC Asheville
@
Winthrop
|
+14.0 | 161.8 | 90% | 57–55 | ✗ |
Milwaukee
@
IU Indianapolis
|
-4.3 | 144.4 | 35% | 68–73 | ✗ |
UIC
@
Northern Kentucky
|
+1.9 | 134.0 | 57% | 68–72 | ✓ |
Longwood
@
Presbyterian
|
-3.6 | 121.8 | 37% | 49–45 | ✓ |
Bellarmine
@
Kennesaw State
|
-7.8 | 126.8 | 24% | 84–67 | ✓ |
Florida International
@
Charlotte
|
+7.5 | 139.7 | 75% | 55–63 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.