And with the way you look I understand you're not impressed. "Alison" - Elvis Costello
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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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23–3 on winners spread MAE 9.0 26 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Penn State @ Ohio State +6.5 153.0 72% 79–83 ✓
Creighton @ Seton Hall -1.7 152.9 44% 85–81 ✓
Virginia Tech @ Notre Dame -2.1 144.1 42% 62–51 ✓
Mercer @ UNC Greensboro +2.7 145.2 60% 68–81 ✓
Marquette @ Providence +3.1 142.1 61% 63–72 ✓
Georgia @ South Carolina +1.6 163.5 56% 59–83 ✓
Western Carolina @ VMI +5.0 168.3 68% 61–87 ✓
LSU New Orleans @ Northwestern State +0.7 156.0 53% 73–81 ✓
East Carolina @ UCF +6.8 128.3 73% 64–71 ✓
Wake Forest @ NC State +4.5 147.7 66% 67–72 ✓
McNeese @ Nicholls +18.4 154.8 95% 69–76 ✓
Houston Christian @ Incarnate Word +5.8 149.3 70% 73–57 ✗
Sam Houston @ Texas A&M-Corpus Christi -10.7 139.2 16% 75–70 ✓
Stephen F. Austin @ Abilene Christian +9.1 133.2 80% 62–82 ✓
Ole Miss @ Arkansas +6.4 140.1 72% 59–74 ✓
Kansas State @ Baylor +27.4 139.5 99% 59–107 ✓
Wisconsin @ Maryland -0.9 133.2 47% 61–55 ✓
Louisville @ Clemson +1.3 127.6 55% 50–54 ✓
Drake @ Missouri State -7.0 149.4 26% 78–73 ✓
St. John's @ DePaul -1.0 159.2 47% 81–68 ✓
Washington State @ Colorado +16.9 134.0 94% 58–70 ✓
Boise State @ Colorado State -2.1 143.8 42% 56–78 ✗
Central Arkansas @ SE Louisiana -3.2 152.0 39% 57–69 ✗
Utah State @ UNLV -6.3 135.4 28% 83–74 ✓
Merrimack @ Long Island University +7.4 138.3 75% 68–78 ✓
Oregon State @ USC +15.6 140.6 92% 62–75 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.