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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
14–12 on winners
spread MAE 8.2
26 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Oklahoma
@
Texas
|
+4.6 | 143.4 | 66% | 80–79 | ✗ |
Kentucky
@
Alabama
|
+12.1 | 143.5 | 86% | 59–70 | ✓ |
Mississippi State
@
Tennessee
|
+13.0 | 132.7 | 88% | 53–56 | ✓ |
SMU
@
Memphis
|
-0.8 | 142.6 | 47% | 72–76 | ✗ |
North Carolina
@
Pittsburgh
|
+0.8 | 142.3 | 53% | 75–65 | ✗ |
Fairleigh Dickinson
@
Saint Francis
|
+10.5 | 148.3 | 83% | 94–92 | ✗ |
Toledo
@
Miami (OH)
|
-6.2 | 148.4 | 29% | 90–81 | ✓ |
Eastern Michigan
@
Akron
|
+18.0 | 146.3 | 95% | 65–86 | ✓ |
Drake
@
Missouri State
|
-7.1 | 153.8 | 26% | 68–61 | ✓ |
SIU Edwardsville
@
Eastern Illinois
|
+5.3 | 150.7 | 68% | 87–74 | ✗ |
Dayton
@
Saint Louis
|
+14.0 | 139.5 | 90% | 76–71 | ✗ |
Butler
@
UConn
|
+10.8 | 123.9 | 84% | 51–63 | ✓ |
Missouri
@
Auburn
|
-1.9 | 146.3 | 43% | 82–88 | ✗ |
Southeast Missouri State
@
UT Martin
|
-8.2 | 153.3 | 23% | 66–69 | ✗ |
Georgia Tech
@
Duke
|
-1.1 | 150.9 | 46% | 68–75 | ✗ |
LSU
@
Texas A&M
|
-8.6 | 141.7 | 22% | 78–66 | ✓ |
BYU
@
Pepperdine
|
-9.0 | 146.1 | 21% | 73–76 | ✗ |
Merrimack
@
Long Island University
|
+12.4 | 143.1 | 87% | 68–63 | ✗ |
Towson
@
James Madison
|
+8.5 | 148.8 | 78% | 63–78 | ✓ |
|
Fairleigh Dickinson
@
Saint Francis
|
+10.5 | 148.3 | 83% | 82–90 | ✓ |
Bowling Green
@
Kent State
|
+8.3 | 157.5 | 77% | 91–96 | ✓ |
Rhode Island
@
La Salle
|
-6.7 | 139.0 | 27% | 73–60 | ✓ |
Wofford
@
The Citadel
|
-6.8 | 168.0 | 27% | 69–77 | ✗ |
Miami
@
Florida State
|
+16.4 | 142.8 | 93% | 59–81 | ✓ |
Duquesne
@
Fordham
|
-7.9 | 109.3 | 24% | 86–62 | ✓ |
Vanderbilt
@
Florida
|
+16.5 | 150.1 | 93% | 71–78 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.