And I'm so pilled up that I rattle. "Revolution Rock" - The Clash
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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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74–35 on winners spread MAE 8.8 109 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Purdue @ Michigan State -2.3 143.9 42% 55–54 ✓
Youngstown State @ Wright State +16.5 147.0 93% 74–72 ✗
UIC @ Purdue Fort Wayne -4.1 148.2 35% 89–96 ✗
Northern Kentucky @ Cleveland State +5.2 132.3 68% 44–58 ✓
Stetson @ North Alabama +2.2 138.0 58% 86–77 ✗
North Florida @ Jacksonville +5.7 141.7 70% 65–66 ✓
Lipscomb @ Bellarmine +4.3 138.3 65% 77–72 ✗
Little Rock @ Louisiana -4.0 151.9 36% 64–66 ✗
UT Arlington @ UL Monroe -5.1 138.1 32% 77–64 ✓
Florida International @ Middle Tennessee -4.1 148.2 36% 68–55 ✓
Florida Atlantic @ Old Dominion +9.3 138.4 80% 67–71 ✓
North Texas @ UTSA -12.7 140.3 12% 77–70 ✓
Southern Miss @ UAB +20.9 125.8 97% 60–72 ✓
Air Force @ Boise State +23.9 127.8 99% 69–80 ✓
South Dakota @ Kansas City +0.4 125.8 51% 66–64 ✗
Louisiana Tech @ Western Kentucky +4.8 148.4 67% 64–66 ✓
California Baptist @ Utah Valley -2.4 163.7 41% 50–77 ✗
Grand Canyon @ Tarleton State -5.6 135.5 31% 75–72 ✓
Long Beach State @ Cal State Fullerton +12.1 160.5 86% 82–80 ✗
North Dakota @ Oral Roberts +14.2 147.4 90% 72–71 ✗
Western Illinois @ South Dakota State +18.2 155.0 95% 77–83 ✓
Omaha @ North Dakota State +12.1 131.8 86% 69–71 ✓
Utah State @ New Mexico -15.6 132.2 8% 82–46 ✓
San José State @ Fresno State +16.6 154.4 93% 64–79 ✓
Rice @ UTEP +10.2 143.3 82% 89–101 ✓
Dayton @ Davidson +9.4 130.7 80% 89–78 ✗
Cal Poly @ Cal State Bakersfield +17.7 131.7 95% 49–62 ✓
St. John's @ Creighton +17.4 165.6 94% 79–97 ✓
Ohio State @ Rutgers +1.7 143.0 56% 79–68 ✗
Wake Forest @ Duke -0.5 137.2 48% 68–79 ✗
IU Indianapolis @ Milwaukee +16.0 138.2 93% 63–71 ✓
Richmond @ George Mason -6.1 148.0 29% 77–57 ✓
Miami @ NC State +13.6 143.7 89% 64–59 ✗
Alabama @ Auburn -4.8 151.8 33% 94–90 ✓
Hartford @ UMass Lowell +0.7 129.0 53% 62–71 ✓
Hofstra @ Northeastern +3.0 135.7 61% 56–67 ✓
Texas @ West Virginia +0.0 141.5 50% 72–70 ✗
Gardner-Webb @ Winthrop +13.1 163.3 88% 65–75 ✓
South Florida @ East Carolina +4.4 127.3 65% 69–63 ✗
Mississippi State @ Vanderbilt -3.6 142.2 37% 84–81 ✓
Chattanooga @ The Citadel -2.3 159.1 42% 87–92 ✗
Northern Illinois @ Miami (OH) +12.4 128.6 87% 58–70 ✓
Drexel @ Charleston -4.4 127.5 34% 60–61 ✗
Tennessee @ Texas A&M -15.6 123.9 8% 68–54 ✓
Virginia @ Boston College -9.4 142.5 20% 61–49 ✓
Navy @ Lehigh +1.3 152.5 55% 69–61 ✗
Akron @ Eastern Michigan -18.2 149.7 5% 59–71 ✗
Morgan State @ Norfolk State -2.0 135.3 43% 78–74 ✓
Seton Hall @ DePaul -5.0 161.9 32% 76–68 ✓
Illinois State @ Evansville +5.8 143.6 70% 48–57 ✓
Missouri State @ Valparaiso -3.6 143.0 37% 81–68 ✓
Marist @ Monmouth +9.1 151.4 80% 64–80 ✓
Rhode Island @ VCU +9.3 136.3 80% 83–68 ✗
Fordham @ Duquesne +19.6 121.1 96% 45–48 ✓
Vermont @ Binghamton -4.4 144.3 35% 76–60 ✓
UMBC @ New Hampshire +0.3 133.1 51% 69–54 ✗
Maine @ NJIT +7.0 134.3 74% 54–63 ✓
Delaware @ William & Mary +3.8 130.3 63% 62–67 ✓
Montana State @ Northern Colorado -2.7 139.8 40% 76–74 ✓
Idaho State @ Northern Arizona -2.3 132.8 42% 76–70 ✓
Idaho @ Southern Utah +15.5 157.9 92% 67–83 ✓
Baylor @ TCU -15.5 147.6 8% 67–49 ✓
Washington @ California +4.3 131.8 65% 78–84 ✓
Army @ Holy Cross -1.7 139.2 44% 83–68 ✓
Youngstown State @ Wright State +16.5 147.0 93% 55–93 ✓
UNC Asheville @ Hampton -2.8 148.0 40% 71–73 ✗
South Alabama @ Coastal Carolina +6.6 150.1 73% 69–83 ✓
Houston Christian @ Lamar +2.7 150.5 60% 65–71 ✓
Georgia @ Arkansas +11.1 162.9 84% 69–99 ✓
Tulane @ Houston +20.2 121.9 97% 50–71 ✓
Texas Tech @ Iowa State -9.4 130.4 20% 91–64 ✓
Siena @ Fairfield -12.5 123.3 13% 74–58 ✓
UConn @ Butler -10.1 127.6 18% 72–60 ✓
Manhattan @ Quinnipiac +10.6 137.8 83% 45–42 ✗
UNLV @ Colorado State +12.7 141.3 88% 80–83 ✓
Rider @ Niagara +9.4 138.5 80% 55–66 ✓
La Salle @ Massachusetts +8.5 159.1 78% 67–83 ✓
Lafayette @ Bucknell -3.7 145.6 37% 83–60 ✓
Jacksonville State @ Morehead State -4.5 121.5 34% 55–56 ✗
Georgia Southern @ App State +5.5 134.5 69% 71–77 ✓
North Texas @ UTSA -12.7 140.3 12% 69–77 ✗
Western Michigan @ Kent State +15.9 137.3 93% 54–80 ✓
Oklahoma @ Kansas +7.3 149.0 75% 59–63 ✓
Bowling Green @ Central Michigan -7.1 160.8 26% 93–65 ✓
Washington State @ Stanford +5.6 128.5 70% 60–75 ✓
Northwestern State @ McNeese -3.4 160.1 38% 78–75 ✓
Kentucky @ Florida +11.9 142.4 86% 76–58 ✗
UIC @ Purdue Fort Wayne -4.1 148.2 35% 55–88 ✗
Oakland @ Green Bay +5.5 158.1 69% 78–87 ✓
UT Martin @ Belmont +22.1 153.5 98% 69–89 ✓
Austin Peay @ Eastern Illinois +5.8 152.0 70% 74–71 ✗
Radford @ Charleston Southern -3.8 117.2 36% 79–64 ✓
Kennesaw State @ Liberty +16.3 128.3 93% 47–76 ✓
Lipscomb @ Bellarmine +4.3 138.3 65% 65–58 ✗
Sam Houston @ Central Arkansas +2.6 151.3 59% 91–80 ✗
Little Rock @ Louisiana -4.0 151.9 36% 78–76 ✓
UT Arlington @ UL Monroe -5.1 138.1 32% 75–74 ✓
Southern Miss @ UAB +20.9 125.8 97% 58–62 ✓
Florida International @ Middle Tennessee -4.1 148.2 36% 56–67 ✗
Wofford @ UNC Greensboro +1.9 144.4 57% 48–45 ✗
Ball State @ Buffalo +11.9 158.9 86% 69–86 ✓
UAlbany @ Saint Joseph's +4.3 152.2 65% 64–67 ✓
SE Louisiana @ Nicholls +11.6 139.4 85% 67–87 ✓
Colgate @ Boston University -10.2 154.5 18% 86–79 ✓
Campbell @ Longwood +1.2 138.1 54% 64–58 ✗
North Florida @ Jacksonville +5.7 141.7 70% 70–68 ✗
Oklahoma State @ Kansas State -7.1 145.1 26% 70–54 ✓
Alabama State @ Arkansas-Pine Bluff +6.1 126.9 71% 82–91 ✓
Southern @ Grambling +6.1 137.5 71% 61–55 ✗

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.