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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
28–4 on winners
spread MAE 8.5
32 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Iowa
@
Maryland
|
-3.1 | 165.5 | 39% | 89–67 | ✓ |
Indiana
@
Wisconsin
|
+8.0 | 129.1 | 77% | 73–80 | ✓ |
Cincinnati
@
SMU
|
+11.1 | 148.8 | 84% | 76–69 | ✗ |
Saint Francis
@
Long Island University
|
+6.7 | 142.4 | 73% | 75–78 | ✓ |
Tennessee Tech
@
Morehead State
|
+7.4 | 131.0 | 75% | 54–57 | ✓ |
Southeast Missouri State
@
Belmont
|
+16.1 | 152.7 | 93% | 66–77 | ✓ |
UNLV
@
Colorado State
|
+17.1 | 139.8 | 94% | 71–74 | ✓ |
Jacksonville State
@
Eastern Kentucky
|
+3.9 | 140.4 | 64% | 66–69 | ✓ |
Idaho State
@
Northern Arizona
|
-2.2 | 130.5 | 42% | 73–69 | ✓ |
BYU
@
Gonzaga
|
+15.9 | 162.0 | 93% | 69–86 | ✓ |
Murray State
@
Eastern Illinois
|
+3.0 | 140.9 | 61% | 68–74 | ✓ |
Montana State
@
Northern Colorado
|
+1.6 | 138.2 | 56% | 79–67 | ✗ |
Illinois
@
Northwestern
|
-5.2 | 155.7 | 32% | 81–56 | ✓ |
Washington
@
Stanford
|
+13.3 | 131.2 | 89% | 75–91 | ✓ |
USC
@
Arizona
|
+2.4 | 148.8 | 59% | 87–73 | ✗ |
UT Martin
@
Tennessee State
|
+7.4 | 149.6 | 75% | 62–74 | ✓ |
Portland
@
San Francisco
|
+20.2 | 147.7 | 97% | 64–88 | ✓ |
Idaho
@
Southern Utah
|
+19.5 | 155.2 | 96% | 80–85 | ✓ |
Washington State
@
California
|
-1.0 | 121.8 | 46% | 71–60 | ✓ |
Nevada
@
San Diego State
|
+14.7 | 138.1 | 91% | 60–65 | ✓ |
UCLA
@
Arizona State
|
-2.1 | 156.5 | 42% | 81–75 | ✓ |
IU Indianapolis
@
Milwaukee
|
+12.9 | 125.8 | 88% | 70–94 | ✓ |
Manhattan
@
Quinnipiac
|
+13.2 | 127.7 | 88% | 79–84 | ✓ |
|
Saint Francis
@
Long Island University
|
+6.7 | 142.4 | 73% | 58–71 | ✓ |
Mount St. Mary's
@
St. Francis Brooklyn
|
+1.0 | 134.4 | 54% | 55–67 | ✓ |
Central Connecticut
@
Bryant
|
+19.5 | 173.0 | 96% | 64–76 | ✓ |
Rider
@
Niagara
|
+13.5 | 137.4 | 89% | 76–70 | ✗ |
Oakland
@
Green Bay
|
+6.1 | 158.3 | 71% | 81–84 | ✓ |
Kennesaw State
@
Liberty
|
+19.0 | 127.4 | 96% | 63–69 | ✓ |
South Alabama
@
Coastal Carolina
|
+4.4 | 152.2 | 65% | 65–78 | ✓ |
Georgia Southern
@
App State
|
+6.2 | 135.7 | 72% | 63–66 | ✓ |
Ohio
@
Toledo
|
+6.4 | 151.1 | 72% | 78–95 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.