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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
22–4 on winners
spread MAE 10.0
26 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Arkansas
@
Tennessee
|
+9.4 | 142.0 | 80% | 74–79 | ✓ |
Georgetown
@
Butler
|
+1.5 | 138.3 | 55% | 55–63 | ✓ |
VCU
@
George Mason
|
-12.2 | 137.2 | 13% | 66–61 | ✓ |
Georgia
@
LSU
|
+13.0 | 160.4 | 88% | 92–94 | ✓ |
Samford
@
Chattanooga
|
+4.9 | 155.3 | 67% | 68–73 | ✓ |
UNC Greensboro
@
Wofford
|
+8.1 | 139.6 | 77% | 84–75 | ✗ |
Incarnate Word
@
Northwestern State
|
+4.7 | 153.9 | 66% | 75–67 | ✗ |
Wichita State
@
Houston
|
+13.7 | 138.3 | 89% | 63–70 | ✓ |
St. John's
@
Xavier
|
+11.9 | 165.8 | 86% | 61–69 | ✓ |
Abilene Christian
@
Houston Christian
|
-17.9 | 143.9 | 5% | 66–63 | ✓ |
Sam Houston
@
SE Louisiana
|
-2.1 | 143.4 | 43% | 70–52 | ✓ |
LSU New Orleans
@
Central Arkansas
|
+13.5 | 147.7 | 89% | 79–83 | ✓ |
Lamar
@
Nicholls
|
+15.1 | 142.9 | 91% | 69–76 | ✓ |
Minnesota
@
Michigan
|
+7.5 | 157.4 | 75% | 57–82 | ✓ |
Boston College
@
Duke
|
+6.4 | 148.5 | 72% | 82–83 | ✓ |
Oklahoma
@
Baylor
|
+16.6 | 159.1 | 93% | 61–76 | ✓ |
Seton Hall
@
Creighton
|
+5.1 | 153.6 | 68% | 53–89 | ✓ |
Wake Forest
@
Virginia
|
+10.0 | 125.6 | 82% | 61–70 | ✓ |
Texas A&M
@
South Carolina
|
+3.9 | 137.6 | 64% | 54–78 | ✓ |
Auburn
@
Ole Miss
|
+7.9 | 136.4 | 76% | 61–72 | ✓ |
Utah State
@
New Mexico
|
-11.0 | 135.5 | 16% | 77–45 | ✓ |
Air Force
@
Boise State
|
+26.1 | 124.2 | 99% | 59–78 | ✓ |
Central Connecticut
@
Bryant
|
+18.1 | 175.1 | 95% | 68–93 | ✓ |
Mount St. Mary's
@
St. Francis Brooklyn
|
-4.7 | 137.1 | 33% | 55–70 | ✗ |
Oregon
@
Colorado
|
+7.1 | 139.9 | 74% | 72–79 | ✓ |
Northeastern
@
Hofstra
|
+5.0 | 130.7 | 67% | 81–78 | ✗ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.