Betting Lines
| Spread | UTC -5.0 Push |
| O/U | 156.0 Under |
| Money | UTC -220 SAM +190 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UTC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UTC +5 | 141 | Won |
| Massey | UTC -4.3 (+0.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 155.2 (-14.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 71% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 61% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UTC -3.3 (+1.7) | 149.8 (-8.8) | 67% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UTC -2.5 (+2.5) | 148.8 (-7.8) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UTC -4.0 (+1.0) | 151.0 (-10.0) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UTC -3.1 (+1.9) | 149.4 (-8.4) | 67% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 24, 2026 | SAM 75 – 64 UTC |
| Jan 10, 2026 | UTC 88 – 79 SAM |
| Feb 13, 2025 | UTC 82 – 68 SAM |
| Jan 24, 2025 | SAM 73 – 69 UTC |
| Feb 3, 2024 | SAM 78 – 56 UTC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UTC | SAM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-8 | 6-13 |
| Conference | 9-7 | 2-9 |
| Home | 9-3 | 4-5 |
| Away | 9-4 | 2-7 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L3 | L6 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.2 | 72.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.8 | 79.6 |
| Massey | 2.8 (#120) | 1.9 (#134) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.75 (#117) | 0.45 (#141) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.73 (#128) | 0.90 (#120) |
| RPI | 0.518 (#145) | 0.544 (#104) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UTC | SAM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.2% | 44.6% |
| 3PT% | 36.6% | 32.9% |
| REB / G | 33.4 | 38.9 |
| OREB / G | 7.4 | 11.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.11 | 1.02 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.5% | 50.8% |
| TOV% | 16.9% | 19.2% |
| ORB% | 21.8% | 29.4% |
| FT Rate | 25.0% | 18.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.1% | 50.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.5% | 20.2% |
| DRB% | 76.2% | 73.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 14.6% | 32.8% |
Game Analysis
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