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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
13–4 on winners
spread MAE 11.4
17 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Kansas State
@
Texas Tech
|
+18.3 | 127.1 | 95% | 71–82 | ✓ |
NC State
@
Clemson
|
+4.3 | 130.1 | 65% | 70–74 | ✓ |
Davidson
@
Duquesne
|
-0.5 | 137.7 | 48% | 61–48 | ✓ |
Vanderbilt
@
Kentucky
|
+8.1 | 131.1 | 77% | 74–77 | ✓ |
Florida
@
Alabama
|
+0.4 | 156.7 | 52% | 71–86 | ✓ |
Iowa State
@
Texas
|
+19.8 | 133.4 | 96% | 72–78 | ✓ |
Delaware State
@
Coppin State
|
+12.1 | 156.1 | 87% | 77–81 | ✓ |
North Carolina
@
Miami
|
-3.7 | 134.2 | 37% | 67–65 | ✓ |
Missouri
@
Mississippi State
|
-6.0 | 140.6 | 29% | 63–78 | ✗ |
Rutgers
@
Michigan State
|
-7.1 | 156.0 | 26% | 45–68 | ✗ |
UConn
@
Marquette
|
+0.2 | 137.3 | 51% | 65–54 | ✗ |
Kansas
@
TCU
|
-2.1 | 138.5 | 43% | 93–64 | ✓ |
Tulsa
@
South Florida
|
-0.6 | 127.1 | 48% | 61–51 | ✓ |
Saint Joseph's
@
St. Bonaventure
|
+14.3 | 158.8 | 90% | 57–83 | ✓ |
Pittsburgh
@
Syracuse
|
+13.0 | 143.5 | 88% | 63–60 | ✗ |
Rhode Island
@
Richmond
|
+4.2 | 147.4 | 65% | 73–80 | ✓ |
Virginia Tech
@
Louisville
|
+3.6 | 133.6 | 63% | 71–73 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.