Betting Lines
| Spread | UNC -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Under |
| Money | MIA +160 UNC -190 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MIA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNC +2 | 132 | Lost |
| Massey | UNC -3.6 (+1.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 134.5 (-2.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 38% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 19% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNC -2.3 (+0.3) | 136.0 (-4.0) | 42% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNC -2.9 (+0.9) | 135.3 (-3.3) | 44% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNC -2.9 (+0.9) | 137.4 (-5.4) | 39% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNC -2.4 (+0.4) | 136.0 (-4.0) | 40% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 11, 2026 | MIA 75 – 66 UNC |
| Mar 1, 2025 | UNC 92 – 73 MIA |
| Feb 27, 2024 | UNC 75 – 71 MIA |
| Feb 10, 2024 | UNC 75 – 72 MIA |
| Feb 14, 2023 | MIA 80 – 72 UNC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MIA | UNC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-17 | 18-11 |
| Conference | 4-15 | 10-6 |
| Home | 7-8 | 10-1 |
| Away | 1-8 | 3-7 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 5-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.4 | 75.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.0 | 69.9 |
| Massey | 2.3 (#127) | 9.3 (#57) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.34 (#147) | 1.39 (#78) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.21 (#164) | 2.26 (#67) |
| RPI | 0.502 (#166) | 0.558 (#85) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MIA | UNC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.7% | 42.6% |
| 3PT% | 28.0% | 28.7% |
| REB / G | 39.9 | 44.9 |
| OREB / G | 10.4 | 16.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.92 | 0.88 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.8% | 46.5% |
| TOV% | 21.0% | 21.6% |
| ORB% | 30.4% | 41.6% |
| FT Rate | 25.8% | 26.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.3% | 49.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.3% | 18.9% |
| DRB% | 78.1% | 76.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 12.6% | 15.8% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.