Betting Lines
| Spread | LOU -4.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 131.5 Over |
| Money | LOU -180 VT +160 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LOU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LOU +2 | 144 | Won |
| Massey | LOU -3.4 (-1.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 133.6 (+10.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 60% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 50% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LOU -1.9 (+0.1) | 133.7 (+10.3) | 61% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LOU -2.3 (-0.3) | 131.4 (+12.6) | 61% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LOU -1.5 (+0.5) | 133.7 (+10.3) | 61% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | LOU -2.2 (-0.2) | 135.4 (+8.6) | 60% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 24, 2026 | LOU 85 – 71 VT |
| Feb 26, 2025 | LOU 71 – 66 VT |
| Mar 6, 2024 | VT 80 – 64 LOU |
| Dec 3, 2023 | VT 75 – 68 LOU |
| Mar 1, 2023 | VT 71 – 54 LOU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LOU | VT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-7 | 15-7 |
| Conference | 8-5 | 9-4 |
| Home | 9-2 | 10-2 |
| Away | 4-4 | 3-3 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.0 | 72.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.5 | 66.0 |
| Massey | 10.0 (#50) | 9.9 (#51) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.06 (#14) | 3.24 (#11) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.75 (#25) | 4.36 (#16) |
| RPI | 0.653 (#13) | 0.607 (#42) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LOU | VT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.2% | 45.7% |
| 3PT% | 33.8% | 36.5% |
| REB / G | 38.1 | 36.4 |
| OREB / G | 9.5 | 10.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.94 | 1.10 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.5% | 53.5% |
| TOV% | 20.2% | 18.3% |
| ORB% | 31.4% | 31.7% |
| FT Rate | 28.0% | 26.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.1% | 48.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.1% | 18.8% |
| DRB% | 73.9% | 77.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.0% | 18.0% |
Game Analysis
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