Betting Lines
| Spread | SBU -13.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 150.0 Under |
| Money | SBU -1000 JOES +650 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SBU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SBU +26 | 140 | Won |
| Massey | SBU -14.5 (+11.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 158.9 (-18.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SBU -12.6 (+13.4) | 152.6 (-12.6) | 88% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SBU -10.6 (+15.4) | 151.6 (-11.6) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SBU -13.0 (+13.0) | 153.1 (-13.1) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SBU -12.3 (+13.7) | 151.1 (-11.1) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 19, 2026 | JOES 71 – 65 SBU |
| Jan 15, 2026 | JOES 68 – 64 SBU |
| Feb 27, 2025 | JOES 75 – 64 SBU |
| Jan 27, 2024 | SBU 91 – 72 JOES |
| Feb 26, 2023 | SBU 89 – 76 JOES |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SBU | JOES |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-5 | 5-15 |
| Conference | 11-4 | 3-9 |
| Home | 8-1 | 3-3 |
| Away | 3-3 | 1-9 |
| Neutral | 5-1 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-1 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.0 | 72.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 61.1 | 82.6 |
| Massey | 7.7 (#65) | -3.4 (#226) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.33 (#36) | -1.76 (#290) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.09 (#47) | -2.19 (#277) |
| RPI | 0.723 (#1) | 0.481 (#191) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SBU | JOES |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.0% | 40.3% |
| 3PT% | 28.6% | 29.0% |
| REB / G | 37.8 | 33.1 |
| OREB / G | 12.5 | 9.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.08 | 0.94 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.6% | 47.5% |
| TOV% | 18.7% | 20.3% |
| ORB% | 32.7% | 23.0% |
| FT Rate | 18.4% | 21.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.7% | 53.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.6% | 18.1% |
| DRB% | 70.6% | 64.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.6% | 33.9% |
Game Analysis
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