Betting Lines
| Spread | MIZ -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 134.5 Over |
| Money | MSST +110 MIZ -130 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MSST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MSST +15 | 141 | Won |
| Massey | MIZ -7.3 (+22.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.9 (+1.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 4% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 2% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MIZ -2.8 (+17.8) | 138.7 (+2.3) | 32% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MIZ -2.5 (+17.5) | 137.3 (+3.7) | 42% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MIZ -2.9 (+17.9) | 140.5 (+0.5) | 49% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MIZ -4.0 (+19.0) | 140.7 (+0.3) | 41% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | MIZ 88 – 64 MSST |
| Jan 31, 2026 | MIZ 84 – 79 MSST |
| Mar 13, 2025 | MIZ 85 – 73 MSST |
| Feb 1, 2025 | MIZ 88 – 61 MSST |
| Feb 11, 2024 | MSST 75 – 51 MIZ |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MSST | MIZ |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-15 | 16-10 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 8-8 |
| Home | 9-6 | 8-4 |
| Away | 5-4 | 6-4 |
| Neutral | 4-5 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.3 | 73.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.8 | 71.9 |
| Massey | 4.3 (#105) | 15.0 (#17) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.15 (#161) | 3.87 (#4) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.71 (#132) | 5.25 (#6) |
| RPI | 0.487 (#178) | 0.722 (#2) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MSST | MIZ |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.2% | 44.2% |
| 3PT% | 37.9% | 27.2% |
| REB / G | 41.4 | 40.0 |
| OREB / G | 14.5 | 10.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.99 | 0.81 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.7% | 49.4% |
| TOV% | 19.7% | 20.5% |
| ORB% | 39.3% | 31.3% |
| FT Rate | 21.8% | 33.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.5% | 42.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.2% | 16.3% |
| DRB% | 73.7% | 72.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.4% | 23.4% |
Game Analysis
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