Betting Lines
| Spread | ALA -2.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 152.0 Over |
| Money | ALA -135 FLA +115 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ALA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ALA +15 | 157 | Won |
| Massey | ALA -0.2 (+14.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 155.8 (+1.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 56% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ALA -2.5 (+12.5) | 151.2 (+5.8) | 61% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ALA -2.5 (+12.5) | 151.1 (+5.9) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ALA -3.1 (+11.9) | 152.5 (+4.5) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ALA -2.8 (+12.2) | 150.9 (+6.1) | 65% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 1, 2026 | FLA 100 – 77 ALA |
| Mar 15, 2025 | FLA 104 – 82 ALA |
| Mar 6, 2025 | FLA 99 – 94 ALA |
| Mar 16, 2024 | FLA 102 – 88 ALA |
| Mar 6, 2024 | FLA 105 – 87 ALA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ALA | FLA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 26-7 | 15-10 |
| Conference | 16-2 | 9-7 |
| Home | 12-1 | 6-3 |
| Away | 7-3 | 5-5 |
| Neutral | 7-3 | 4-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.7 | 74.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.1 | 70.3 |
| Massey | 11.4 (#40) | 14.6 (#19) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.19 (#39) | 2.51 (#28) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.39 (#34) | 3.24 (#38) |
| RPI | 0.634 (#19) | 0.658 (#11) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ALA | FLA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.8% | 50.6% |
| 3PT% | 31.8% | 36.2% |
| REB / G | 41.0 | 36.3 |
| OREB / G | 13.2 | 9.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.02 | 0.87 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.3% | 56.6% |
| TOV% | 18.0% | 20.1% |
| ORB% | 32.3% | 31.4% |
| FT Rate | 22.8% | 30.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.9% | 46.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.9% | 23.6% |
| DRB% | 70.7% | 71.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.5% | 31.8% |
Game Analysis
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